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You seem to run high?

Surprised at the 1” hail tag. Tough to get 1” hail in this setup. Poor lapse rates and very warm aloft. Would need a monster updraft to achieve that.

faded like you after a 50mg gummy ...dews will drop in September. at least 8-10 weeks before the weather turns to shit with regular lower dews and cool temps

God I love this location for severe * At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Belchertown, or 8 miles southeast of Amherst But seriously though I doubt this one verifies. Classic SPS event IMO

Yeah as bluewave says we can look at what the mjo does in Oct to see if we get that kind of mismatch. I also think we’ll have better blocking because the qbo is negative this time, which is the main difference from last winter and from 22-23. Maybe that means we get an extra episode thrown in, and/or extend each blocking episode by a few days or so.

More like 6 weeks. End of Aug the dews typically fade some and a more enjoyable climo starts to take hold.

And it gets warned

No peas here but quite a bit of lightning, a good amount of rain, and a nice change to the airmass. Stein, we hardly knew ye

YOLO

I swear to God if today isn't the biggest kick in the nuts you could ever receive.

You can see the line in PA starting to pulse down. Might just turn into a moderate rain maker

Pretty blah here. Just a shower, as the cells have either weakened or missed to the North. Last night with all the nail biting was much better. However, it is early and we will see what the overnight brings.

94/75 at peak. Just before 4pm 90s are the daily now

Mortar style house shaking thunder

Quite breezy out ahead of this

Just .20” here. Hopefully another round comes through.

Surprised you haven't received more, unless you're talking about the last couple of hours. Have 1.05" here in the last 24 hours, including about a half an inch around 2 to 3 am last night.

Radar isn't overwhelming for here at the moment, but it's dark enough for the lightning bugs, lol.

a little bit of storm scale rotation evident as the leading cell moves along 202 through Granby and Btown. Maybe someone could score a few peas?

Hour 2 with no power. And there was no wind or anything that should have caused it

here it comes !

Quick downpour in Holyoke.. eta: still at it

Just got home and checked my rain gauge -2.55"!

<<< July daily records for NYC 1869-2024 >>> (I know, trees, shade, blah blah) Notes: temps in brackets with low mins are that day's max if it wasn't the daily low max. 2d highest rainfalls are previous day and day reported ... July 1 would include June 30. if marked * are only observed on day (example 2.80" July 3, 1930, July 2 was dry). if marked ** were only from previous day, reporting day was dry (example 3.13" on July 7, 1884 provided 2d record July 7-8). DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min __________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ notes Jul 01 ___100 1901 ____ 79 2018 _______ 70 1869,71,88 _52 1943 (74) ______2.17 1933 ___ 3.71 1984 Jul 02 ___100 1901,66 _ 82 1901 _______ 67 1891 _____ 56 1888, 2011 ____1.79 1914 ___ 2.41 1914 Jul 03 ___103 1966 ____ 82 2002 _______64 1870,1914 __54 1933 (65) ______2.80 1930 ___ 2.80 1930* Jul 04 ___102 1949 ____ 81 2002 _______ 62 1978 _____55 1986 (77) ______ 1.76 1981 ___ 3.19 1967 (2.08+1.11) 2.91" 2d 1978 Jul 05 ___101 1999 ____ 82 1999 _______ 62 1882 _____ 53 1979 (69) ______ 3.07 1901 ___ 3.07 1901* Jul 06 ___103 2010 ____ 83 1999 _______ 61 1956 _____ 54 1979 (78) ______ 1.97 1896 ___ 4.33 1901 Jul 07 ___100 2010 ____ 84 1908 _______71 1914,43,87 _56 1914 __________ 3.13 1984 ___ 3.14 1984 Jul 08 ___100 1993 ____ 80 1993 _______ 66 2005 ____ 56 1894 (67) ______ 2.27 2021 ___ 3.13 1984** Jul 09 ___106 1936 ____80 1981^_______ 63 1964 _____54 1963 (78) ______ 2.06 2021 ___ 4.33 2021 Jul 10 ___102 1936,93__80 1993 _______ 65 1917 _____ 55 1890 (70) ______ 2.54 2020 ___ 2.33 2021__(2.32 1997) Jul 11 ___ 98 1988 _____ 79 1988 _______ 64 1914 _____ 57 1893, 98 _______ 1.94 1940 ___ 3.30 2020 __ 2.72" 2d 1874 (1.94+0.78) Jul 12 ___ 99 1966 ____ 79 1905 _______ 67 1990 _____ 57 1926 ___________ 2.68 1937 ___ 3.09 1937 Jul 13 ___101 1966 ____ 79 1876 _______ 67 1964 _____ 54 1888 (70) _____ 3.16 1972 ___ 3.16 1972* __ 2.83" 2d 1897 (0.54+2.29) Jul 14 ___100 1954 ____ 78 1952 _______ 73 2017^____ 58 1877,88,1926 __ 1.47 1908 ___ 3.16 1972** Jul 15 ___102 1995 ____ 84 1995 _______ 67 1926 _____57 1930 (78) 14th __ 1.80 1975 ___ 1.98 1975 tied 1.98 2000 (0.59+1.39) Jul 16 ___ 99 1980 ____ 80 1952 _______ 70 1933 _____ 56 1926, 46 _______ 1.50 1871 ___ 2.16 1926 (0.78+1.38) Jul 17 ___100 1953 ____ 82 1870 _______ 72 1992 _____57 1892 (76) ______ 3.13 1995 ___ 3.16 1995 __ 2.91 1877 Jul 18 ___101 1953 ____ 81 1900,2013 __ 66 1962 _____ 57 1925 (77) ______ 1.81 2022 ___ 3.36 1995 Jul 19 ___102 1977 ____ 83 2013 _______ 69 2000 _____57 1924 (77) 18th __ 1.82 1919 ___ 2.67 1919 Jul 20 ___101 1980 ____ 82 2015,19 ____ 69 1869 _____55 1890 (70) ______ 1.97 1889 ___ 2.77 1919 __ 2.22 1988 (0.94+1.28) Jul 21 ___104 1977 ____ 82 1980 _______ 66 1956 _____55 1890 (73) ______ 2.26 1983 ___ 2.99 1988 (1.28+1.71) Jul 22 ___104 2011 ____ 84 2011 _______ 69 1958 _____58 1871, 90 _______ 1.86 1880 ___ 2.50 1896 (1.06+1.44) Jul 23 ___100 2011 ____ 83 2011 _______70 1996^_____58 1871,90 _________ 2.41 1953 ___ 2.99 1946 __ also 2.70 1938 (0.30+2.40) Jul 24 ___ 97 1999,2010 _80 2010 _______ 67 1904 _____56 1893 (74) _____ 3.75 1997 ___3.75 1997 __ also 2.73 1938 (2.40+0.33) Jul 25 ___ 97 1999 ____ 80 1885 _______ 68 2013 _____57 1953 (79) ______ 1.64 1926 ___ 4.62 1997 __ 2.49 1975 (1.06+1.43) Jul 26 ___ 98 1940 ____ 79 1979 _______ 69 1901,2000_55 1920 (75) _____ 3.24 2000 ___ 3.24 1997*__ 2.91 1872 (1d) Jul 27 ___ 98 1940,63__78 1995 _______ 68 1897,2000_55 1920 (79) ______2.65 1889 ___ 4.37 2000 Jul 28 ___ 97 1999^____ 80 2020 _______68 1897 _____57 1903 (72 27th) _ 3.11 1913 ___ 3.11 1913*__ 3.06 1902 (1d) Jul 29 ___ 99 1949 ____ 79 1995, 2002 _ 69 1884 _____59 1914 (69 28th) _ 3.47 1980 ___ 3.47 1980* __ 3.14 1913 2d Jul 30 ___ 98 1988^____80 2002 _______ 68 1881,1914_57 1956 (75) ______ 3.56 1960 ___ 3.64 1971 (0.64+3.00) Jul 31 ___102 1933 ____ 82 1917 _______ 65 1923 _____ 57 1895, 1914 ______ 2.29 1889 ___ 3.56 1960**_ 3.13" 1971 2d ^ -- - - - - - - - - - -- trivia ... ^ min with the 1936 all-time record high max was 77. 1937 had 79 same date. Despite this, hundreds died of heat prostration in the 1936 heat wave. ^ low max tied July 14 in 1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 note 18th: 2022 replaced 2012 (1.72") ^ low max tied July 23 in 1894, 1909, 1969, 1992, 1996. ^ max for July 28 tied 1892, 1931, 1949, 1999. ^ max for July 30 tied 1917, 1933, 1940, 1988. ^ 2d rainfall July 30-31 3.00" 1918 (2.00+1.00) __________________________________________________________________

I can see how this could kind of fail around here this evening . We’ll see what happens