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The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?
Weather Will replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Thank you for proving my point. I’d say that’s a no, at least with government attorneys and/or emergency services.
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Mid to long range discussion- 2025
WinstonSalemArlington replied to wncsnow's topic in Southeastern States
Chilly Halloween -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
dendrite replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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I gave in on the heat (not the oil furnace only the heat pump) this morning. It was chilly.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's really about as close of a match as you ever are going to get, the only place in the world that was really different was south of South America.. I think after the Solar Flares in May 2024, the Earth went into a pattern. A lot of this is described as +AO, but that pattern continues now going into the cold season I think. The 4-corners High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer as last, and that did show tendency to become +PNA last Winter, so maybe not so much +PNA this Winter, but 24-25 is a good analog going forward. -
I personally think a cold October is better for a cold/wet Winter, just by common sense. I kept a weather journal starting in Sept 2002, and I was surprised looking back at it that it snowed 4 times in October 2002. The data though, going back to 1948, Oct -EPO/+PNA is good for snow at about a +0.2 correlation, and +EPO/-PNA is bad for snow at a -0.2 correlation. The Atlantic has an opposite correlation though (-NAO Oct usually begets +NAO Winter, and +NAO Oct usually begets -NAO Winter), so that's where the confusion comes from.. but I bet over 200 years, not 76 years, there would be no inverse NAO correlation.
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I hate this small gap in modeling during this time. I need more reasons to be duped into thinking this is coming west.
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Well either way they're not going to need it lol
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You moved to NJ? I have to screenshot not sure why I can't copy and paste it.. only spot with less is SW CT
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High-brid?
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Euro ai 2 runs in row trending west...
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Coach McGuirk replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Fucking Karen's making it all about themselves. -
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Coach McGuirk replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Latest Euro has a weird split with the low pressure, I have never seen that before. -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Autumn is coming -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
MPM Says that’s not 20F - Today
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I think 18z UKMET would be a bit better compared to 12z but the run stops at 66 so no way to be sure
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Voyager replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You're right. If Tamaqua were big time, I'd be in the inner city. -
lol its closer.. either way the final solution isn't set and stone yet
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Models had this way south from the start
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Im looking at storm location . Not qpf. Tons of dry air funneling south . Close to whiffing
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12z had less qpf.. go to stormVista pay 20 bucks for the month and enjoy... then you can see for yourself instead of going to the NYC thread