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suns poking out

This is ongoing now or in the past? If Walt had not posted I would not have known they were active anywhere in the area. Hope it does not get out of hand here in Jersey. The spotted lantern fly was a bit of a problem Summer of 2023 but just saw a handful last Summer so hopefully that problem is over? Have not heard much on them either.

Go for it!

Oh shit. I just looked up his contract. Yep. Your right. That's not good lol.

Snowfall is down across the board since 1989-1990, as shown by linear regression. So I don't think we need to posit some sort of "increase in moisture" was causing increased snowfall. I don't believe there is much evidence to support this hypothesis anyways. Winter precipitation is up less than one inch in most places since the 1800s, so that could only explain at most ~10-12" of additional snow since the 1800s [if temperatures permit], and the difference since the late 19th century is negligible. It was simply a period of natural variability favoring higher snowfall superimposed over a long term downward trend. Here is Boston, just for an example. Why do we need to blame everything on climate change? The higher snowfall period in the 2000s & 2010s, like the one in the mid 90s, was likely natural variability imposed on a downward trend. Recent years show natural variability acting in the same direction as trend, amplifying low snowfall years.

That’s why Dixie ally has always been especially dangerous. Suns out and temps skyrocketing. Increasing cape, but is there even a mechanism?

Any interest in starting a severe weather thread for May 17th-20th?

We do flash flooding very well in this terrain. The basins just overwhelm waterways with 1-2” in an hour. Incident Closure - NewTRAFFIC ALERT: VT-15 Cambridge is CLOSED in both directions due to a flooded driveway and possible roadway damage 1/4 mile east of the "Wrong-Way Bridge". Updates will follow when available.

What site is this from? Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

18z valid daily temps…horrid

For Manchester, we know their ASOS is running toasty. Unless it was fixed recently.

Monday is close on the GFS but looks like the rain waits until nightfall

12z gfs is noose worthy. Only saving grace would be a salvaged MDW.

Ride the GGEM it came North North North at 12z GFS looks further south now though

Run it for high temps only?

And it’s raining

Ride GGEM. South south south please

Meanwhile let’s gust 30-50 with wind driven rain next week on gfs and euro.

We’ve only just begun. Stick that roll of Charmin in between your balls because it’s just getting started.

This DOGE shortsightedness definitely needs to be stopped across multiple areas. But with these late night storms especially in rural areas I'm not sure how much we can do.

Cannot wait for cooler next week....I hope its so cool there's wet snow above 2k if we get the noreaster or scattered frost at night in the valleys if its fair. I've had enough heat and humidity already.

I'm not sure this can be done in rural areas though, Don. Omg the updated report is now 23 dead across three states. =\

A more practical measure that can be taken now is to assure that NWS offices that provide critical warning are adequately staffed. The extremely short-sighted DOGE staff reductions can endanger lives. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/weather/nws-cuts-kentucky-tornado.html?unlocked_article_code=1.H08.v8uv.eGs_YqT7fDtY&smid=url-share

The first domino falls. So much for that vote of confidence from Elias.