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Heres euro.

Maybe we are starting to see a pattern change the next several days.The stubborn ridge off Souitheast Asia is semmingly getting shunted East towards the Central Pac per the ensembles,as to where the MJO goes could seemingly just be getting destrucive interference from Rossy/Kelvin closer to the MC,which JMA has been comsistent in showing but the JMA hasnt been doing a spectacular job as of late

Lots of these maps floating around socials

This ain't fair, man. I'll preface this with I am not fully convinced by Alby; I just don't believe in axing a coach after one rookie season. To me, that is not a fair chance by any means; ESPECIALLY when it's not all his fault. Veteran coach would've been better, but they hired Albernaz. But see any other rookie coach would get a minimum of two years, though! And what sunk this season ain't all on him--the bullpen decisions absolutely are. But it's possible that part can get better! The main bulk of what led us here is on Elias/Sig...including the lineups and of course all the analytics. Alby walked into a mess, and being inexperienced got him the ire of the fanbase and possibly a humiliating one and done. Not the most fair thing in the world, and he could very well improve and do well elsewhere if we fire him. I mean frickin' Joe Maddon praised the hire (along with others). Hard to believe they were all wrong and this is as good as Alby gets.

That chart is roughly 5C higher than the one I posted, 8C vs 3C for 2026 for instance. The 5C difference makes sense given the 900m elevation difference in the elevation basis of the estimates.

Yup.

Looking at satellite loops of the tropical Atlantic it looks like June 6th convection-wise not September 6th.

WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER WINTER

I think you mean era, but yeah. I am sure he is happy to be a part of...this. lol.

Some hurricane models now have it close enough for sustained hurricane winds.

Glorious 75 out. Had dinner on the deck.

There's no longer mention of any ring of fire pattern in the local forecast discussion, but they do mention gusty winds ramping up on wednesday and lasting into thursday afternoon along with increasing chances for thunderstorms. At this point in time, it looks that timing will keep severe limited according to the nws.

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests. 2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.02”.

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess

They haven't won in the Luis Roberts JR era yet

I'll be in CO this week and 18z GFS says when I get home its 75 with a dew 45

I may be referring to a different article. I was citing a ClimateBrink piece by Zeke Hausfather, which didn't mention bias correction. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-we-can-and-cannot-say-about

The graph says the temperatures were estimated with ERA re-analysis bias corrected to 5200 feet using regional high elevation weather stations.

The southern tier of NC continues to do well; a nice long-lasting MCC plowed from well west of Charlotte to Brunswick County.

Pretty big shift east today.. maybe Hawaii has some fun after all

-AO is key for cold down here(minus a -EPO), but in a Nino the Aleutian/NE Pac trough position/strength can mitigate the tendency to deliver colder air southward if the flow of Pac air into Canada is overwhelming.