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The most important feature I'm watching is the high pressure that enters the US around hour 100-110.

Getting whalloped at 138

GFS AI is going to be less icy.. otherwise IDK

I got 2.5” yesterday in Commack, western Suffolk

We gotta figure out a system here. I can't figure out if yall are talking about AI GFS or doing pbp for GFS. But anyway...GFS similar, but that s/w out west seems like it's not gonna come out again

? This looks good to me

GFS AI is gonna be a lot colder for us this go

Did it not in 2013-14 and 2014-15, when we had impressive cold? The nearby lakes in my area (Aetna Lake in Medford, NJ) was completely frozen over in late February/early March 2015.

AI has the confluence farther S and the Baja ull held back an asshair or 2

Record lowest max temp for jan 23 in mt pleasant is 7. New euro ensemble has a high of -3 on that day....

stefanski wasn’t even on my short list of hires I wanted to see. kubiak was my top option.

This past weekend brought the first audible sled noise I've heard this winter, but no use yet on the club trail thru our woodlot. Our new neighbors (probably will build this coming warm season) plowed the road past our place last week, including about 1/2 mile of that club trail. Once the new crew is living on the lot, the club might need to either relocate that half mile or abandon a large segment of their trails.

Yeah, at hr 120 that baja low is having a hard time coming east

Someone from Commack reported 3.0”, wasn’t even me… lines up well with what I got so I’ll stick with it

AI GFS seems more suppressed thru 108

ok, at 102 it looks like the baja low is stsaying back a little bit more? might help it show a more snowy solution instead of icy

Don’t notice it was 6Z.

Hey Carvers and others, WxBell definitely didn’t fix the Euro AI ensemble snow maps algos. These two members (#10 and #22) with multiple inches of snow way out in the Gulf are from the hour 84 6Z Euro AIFS, when temps are near normal (70s):

11/30: Mix of sleet and light rain for a couple hours before switching to light cold rain. 12/2: Mix early in the morning before flipping to hard, cold rain. 12/5: 2.25”. 2” in the man event and 0.25” later that evening/overnight. 12/13: 1.25” 1/17-18: T - An hour or so of sleet/flurries on the 17th and very light snow on the 18th Running Total: 3.5”

I’m not sure about the wagons south thing, it’s a massive storm. There is a lot of energy flying around.

Ended up with 8 inches between the two here. Last 3 inches are light and fluffy

AI GFS looks pretty similar at hr 90.

Nothing too different. just noise level feature placements at 72

We had the precip, but thermals were off. Still got some snow and whitened things up nicely over here. Just didn’t really get to the 1” mark. Life at the coast! Still had snow and football….hard to beat that.