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Thanks, Charlie. 1. Isn’t the range of science based predictions of the amount of GW in the very longterm in a pretty wide range as opposed to a narrow range? My understanding is that he’s near the lower end of that range. 2. In addition to the warming effect of increased CO2, there are other factors that could come into play. Spencer believes that there are negative feedback factors that will ultimately limit the amount of GW compared to most model projections. That’s supposedly why he’s near the lower end of the range. 3. He said it MAY even be beneficial not that it would definitely be beneficial. There’s the potential benefit of larger global crop sizes due to a greener planet resulting from a combo of longer growing seasons where they’re currently grown, an increase in the amount of crops grown in higher latitudes, and the increased CO2 photosynthesis effect. Also, cold has killed a good bit more than heat from what I’ve read. However, I do realize that eventually deaths from heat will rise enough to potentially start killing more than cold though that would likely still be a long ways off if that were to happen. Could these good things outweigh the bad things and make it net beneficial? I’m not saying that but it could be debated. Personally, I’m worried about rising sea levels. 4. A greener Earth could be one of the negative feedbacks that Spencer has cited since greener means cooler highs such as has occurred in the Midwest. In addition, drought frequency in the Midwest has dropped since the 1990s.
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2026-2027 El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
At least this year snowman19 has something tangible to hang his hat on to get a warm winter. By last fall he had relegated to posting 3,127 tweets about high solar. lol -
^My neighborhood sentinel^ LOL
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Decent front end thump moving in... 55F -
0.22” of rain since 9am. including in new car. Sunroof left open overnight by someone else.
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Happy Easter all! We have been getting off and on rain every day here. Nothing heavy, but I've tallied 1.27" the past 5 days (0.84 of it yesterday) which has rapidly caused the grass to grow and become emerald green and the trees to bud. Today, we may get a passing Easter rain OR snow shower.
- Today
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Deep Deep thick thick fog
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Pouring rain at 37F is quite the vibe.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Pennsylvanians really only have two modes, and neither of them is “this weather is nice.” We are either standing in 19-degree wind saying, “I can’t take this cold anymore,” or standing in 82 degrees with 40% humidity saying, “This is disgusting.” There is no middle ground. A 64-degree sunny day lasts about eleven minutes here before somebody says it’s either “still a little chilly in the shade” or “getting a little muggy.” We spend all winter begging for summer, all summer begging for fall, all fall pretending we’re not about to complain about winter again, and then the second it hits 50 in March, somebody’s in cargo shorts at Sheetz acting like we made it. -
Starting to rain, real summertime humidity.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
MDT set a record high Saturday (83) -
Does anyone remember this storm? The Spring Snowstorm of April 2-5, 1987. I was not living here but ran across this today. WOW-
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Thundah
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'grats
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Nice bit of rain. Went out when it was light and threw some grass seed down. Using this wet day also to finish a DIY project.
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April 5 1999: Heavy snow falls over the Arrowhead, with 11 inches at Two Harbors. ^Note: We just had a 2 day snow total of 7.7" imby^ 1929: A tornado cuts a path from Lake Minnetonka through North Minneapolis and leaves six dead. For Sunday, April 5, 2026 1945 - The temperature at Eagles Nest, NM, plunged to 45 degrees below zero to establish an April record for the United States. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1955 - The Northern Rockies and the Northern High Plains were in the midst of a four day storm which produced 52 inches of snow at Lead, located in the Black Hills of western South Dakota. (David Ludlum) 1972 - A tornado, 500 yards wide at times, touched down at a marina on the Oregon side of the Columbia River, and then tore through Vancouver WA killing six persons, injuring 300 others, and causing more than five million dollars damage. It was the deadliest tornado of the year, and the worst of record for Washington. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - An unprecedented April blizzard began in the northeastern U.S. One to two feet of snow fell across Massachusetts and Connecticut, and up to 26 inches was reported in Maine. New York City received a foot of snow. Winds reached 70 to 80 mph during the storm, and the storm also produced numerous thunderstorms, which contributed to the heavy snow. (Storm Data) 1987 - A storm produced unprecedented April snows in the central Appalachians. Mount Mitchell NC received 35 inches of snow, and up to 60 inches (six feet) of snow was reported in the mountains along the border of North Carolina and Tennessee. The total of 25 inches at Charleston WV easily surpassed their previous record for the entire month of April of 5.9 inches. The 20.6 inch total at Akron OH established an all-time record for that location. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty-nine cities across the eastern half of the country reported record high temperatures for the date, including Saint Louis MO with a reading of 91 degrees. Laredo TX was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Santa Maria CA and 105 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in southern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and north central and northeastern Texas. Thunderstorms spawned a dozen tornadoes in Texas, including one at Fort Worth which caused a million dollars damage. There were nearly one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms in Texas produced hail three and a half inches in diameter west of Fort Worth, and produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Cross Plains. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
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2026-2027 El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Verbatim, showing a very strong +IOD developing, along with a continued ++PMM… -
2.8" final tally. Happy Easter ev1!
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Blizzard of 93 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Happy Easter! As a long time pro Met says every day, “Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got”! -
37.7° Heavy, heavy rain shower right now
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.39 so far. Maybe we can squeeze out .5
