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Looks like a decent soak for most 1/2” - 3/4” and maybe about an inch in isolated spots.

18z GFS has practically no rain for majority of the forum. Nothing is ever easy

Not sure if this is the right place to post this question, but how does the drought in areas of NNE affect snow making if you don’t make up some of the deficits by mid November?

K8A1 - Guntersville AL KANY - Anthony KS KC24 - Creede CO KCOI - Merritt Island FL KLLR - Little River CA KMZM - Main Pass 69P LA 29.261 -89.030 40m

Euro op and EPS definitely aren’t stein.

I’m intrigued

I posted the NWS discussion yeesterday, ad well ad HPC QPF graphics. Totals were increased a bit this morning, in the discussion (KEEN). No, not a drought buster, that would take a month, or months. Clearly, the forecast ise showers with the front, as of this morning a half inch or so. I will enjoy the showers....I feel like I live in a desert after this summer. I'll take whatever I can get.

Normalcy

If it follows the overall trend of recent years, much of it will develop too far north, and move further north. Anything in this area is typically very spotty.

Poor timing with the incoming cold front, so little to no rain with that here. Looks like another 10 day wait for the next chance of anything. Shitbag pattern continues.

lock it in

We have underperformed a fair amount this weekend. On Friday the NWS had 91º in the forecast for both Sat/Sun. However, yesterday we only hit 86º and today we are stuck at 83º.

Late summer warmth prevailed for another day. Highs reached the 80s in most parts of the region. Preliminary highs in the Northeast included: Albany: 83° Bangor: 80° Bridgeport: 80° Burlington: 86° (old record: 83°, 2023) Caribou: 79° (old record: 77°, 1946 and 2005) Hartford: 85° Islip: 83° (tied record from 2002) New Haven: 82° New York City-Central Park: 84° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 83° Poughkeepsie: 86° White Plains: 83° (tied record set in 2017) Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto were among Canadian cities setting new daily temperature records today. Six locations in Quebec reached 86° (30.0°C) or above. Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. A strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.033 today.

Yankees look good

So far the 18z runs of the NAM, RGEM AND ICON are all more rainy and more widespread with the rain than 12z.

18z RGEM has a nice rain event with the front:

For those who want 80s in October move south.

High here was 86, enjoy the time with the new family addition, safe travels back..

RG4 vibes for sure

for those complaining about lack of cold in the nyc move up north..

Cool fall day up in the Roan. 44 for the low, with a high of 61 under overcast skies and breezy se winds. Temp has fallen to 58. Have had to start the wood stove this week. Looks like the pattern will turn cooler at the very least right after mid month. First inch of snow was Oct 14th-15th last year.

Yeah he has to go. And Orr too. The level of talent on paper is too high for this pathetic performance.

I saw a blue hill observatory van at the templeton cumberland farms. What the heck would they be doing out here in the boonies

We most definitely do not have 5 months of cold coming. You know that's not happening. Winterwarlock complained about highs in the 60s. In the fall. Yea how awful I know right.