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one just moved through here, quick drink

Excellent. Thanks

Some details about evolution of the Great Atlantic Hurricane weather pattern. Aug 1944 had been very hot in the east, and this continued into early September. In fact NYC set a record 97F on Sep 2nd that was later erased by the 102F in 1953. It was 94F on the 3rd and 90F on the 5th. No measurable rain fell from Aug 23 to Sep 11 (a 20 day dry spell) ... Cooler air masses arrived thereafter and were in place when the G.A.H. ran up the east coast. A very warm day followed the passage of the core offshore, in strong southwest to west winds on Sep 15th as shown below ... NYC obs Sep 12 to 18 1944 Date ___ Max _ Min __ rain 09 12 ___ 72 __ 63 ___ 1.64 09 13 ___ 74 __ 66 ___ 3.94 09 14 ___ 78 __ 65 ___ 3.82 09 15 ___ 86 __ 70 ___ Tr 09 16 ___ 84 __ 66 ___ 0.00 09 17 ___ 80 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 18 ___ 73 __ 63 ___ 0.00 09 19 ___ 69 __ 64 ___ 0.09 Weather maps show the G.A.H. at these locations: Sep 13 1944 n.e Bahamas Sep 14 1944 near C Hatteras 12z to s.e. Long Island Sep 15 1944 across Cape Cod into Bay of Fundy (rapidly weakening to TS) Sep 16 1944 absorbed by northern low near e Nfld The 9.40" of rain that fell Sep 12-14 represented 90% of the month's rain (0.77" fell on 28th), and another 14 day dry spell followed Sep 29 to Oct 12 during which another record high was set (88F on Oct 7, 1944). And they say climate change is making the weather more intense. S-u-u-re.

Hmm, where have I seen this movie before? Oh, that's right, every fall since 2007.

Fair enough, the latitude of being NoP is definitely crucial along with not being in the valley anymore. Hope you break 100" this year!

Lol. Can't believe I did that ! Should wear my Reader's. Big Thumbs don't work too well texting.

He came back from the dead! I love when the NHC has a sense of humor lol

WB 18Z NBM at Day 4

One trend I've noticed in the past 20 years is we just can't hold a neutral enso, which is ultimately what we all want for winter in this sub. Just when we thought it was gonna happen, La shit head pops back up to give a screaming pacific jet for the late fall/early winter weather. Just sucks. La Nina/El Nino have always been a thing, but the frequency has definitely changed. Curious.

After waiting 2 1/2 weeks for the daily WCS PDO to update, it FINALLY updated today! A lot has been happening since. As of the previous update, it had bounced back down some to ~-2.75 after having risen a lot to ~-2.0 ~ten days earlier. Since then, it rose back up steeply to ~-1.5 on Sept 6th. Then it fell back some to ~-1.95 on Sept 11th. It rose back some since to the -1.77 shown below for Sept 13th. As a reminder the comparable NOAA daily would likely be ~~-2.75, which itself represents a steep climb from the daily lows near -4.5 in July:

LOL uncanny. Another would be interception is a touchdown for the opposition.

Thanks Don. That's kind of what I was expecting it to look like. My perception was that it has been a drier than normal year to date and drier than 2024 and a much drier 12 month period compared to normal and 2024. It has just been dry. Barring any tropical activity for the second half of this month September I think will finish drier than normal. Not going to be much rainfall over this sub forum for the coming week.

lol how do they not get a touchdown on that drive? Come on Andrews.

Ravens OL is displaying its mediocrity against the Browns defense. The blocked punt is the only reason they are up by 7. Also Monken is so overrated as a play caller. And fuck Harbaugh for again refusing to have Keaton Mitchell available as a weapon. Henry has been ineffective.

A few random cells

Interesting how different this summer has been than some of those years. Obviously you have to adjust the mean anomaly up or down for the various years, but where we had ridge-trough-ridge across the conus (this year), both of these other years were the opposite. Polar domain also looks quite different. Not sure what it means or not, but in my mind its the idea that the ACE correlation isn't great because there are many paths to low or high ACE.

Halfway through September, things have gone about as I expected, though I did not foresee the relentless wave breaking that has reinforced stability and wind shear in the basin. I didn't expect things to pick up until around the 20th, and it looks like that is on track with the newest cherry increasingly likely to break the drought later in the week. After that however, it's pretty unclear how the season will progress. It looks like the tropical Atlantic is a dud, but as climo shifts to the Caribbean and homebrew region, I do think the lid will come off.

12Z runs regarding this MDR AOI: -GFS/CMC/Icon all have this eventually as a H with GFS/CMC both recurving well E of Bermuda (Icon doesn’t go out far enough to tell) -JMA has this as a TD at 48 and a TS at 72. This is stronger than the two prior 12Z runs that each had it as only a TD. -Euro has a MH passing just SE of Bermuda -UKMET again has this as a TS. This is a bit further W than recent runs but it’s still aiming a bit E of Bermuda as of 168: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.4N 47.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2025 72 16.4N 47.4W 1006 40 0000UTC 18.09.2025 84 17.7N 48.8W 1006 42 1200UTC 18.09.2025 96 19.5N 52.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 19.09.2025 108 20.6N 54.3W 1006 40 1200UTC 19.09.2025 120 22.8N 55.1W 1006 44 0000UTC 20.09.2025 132 23.1N 57.0W 1005 43 1200UTC 20.09.2025 144 25.1N 57.7W 1003 46 0000UTC 21.09.2025 156 26.3N 58.6W 1001 49 1200UTC 21.09.2025 168 28.3N 59.3W 999 48

Neighbor works for the forestry. They did control burns on the western slope of the plateau Saturday. Said they don’t go by the typical drought monitor. They go by the foliage conditions & under growth. He said the conditions are much more favorable for fires than most believe.

I would approve of a winter like 96-97 or early 80’s.

Rogue ahower incoming.

Maybe, but keep in mind that these large scale oscillations have a far reaching impact that go beyond SSTs. The atmospheric changes that provide cooling to the basin also impact things like steering patterns and shear. But with all that being equal, if you have large scale warming of the whole basin you'd still end up with what we've had going on this decade--stability issues across the basin and especially in the tropical Atlantic. You need contrasts between the MDR and subtropics to generate the instability necessary to keep waves convectively active.

The Atlantic has been exceptionally quiet for a second consecutive September, but it looks as if the basin is trying to wake back up with a robust tropical wave heading through the tropical Atlantic. The wave, focused near 30W, is most likely still a few days away from consolidating and kicking off the process of tropical genesis, but with a strong model signal from operational/ensemble/AI models, and the wave producing much more convection than the failed development of 91L, this one looks like it will become a TC eventually. There are still some headwinds, figuratively and literally. In the image above you can see stable air to the northwest of the wave. Further west, there is wind shear evident with what little convection being blown over. Long term though, once this wave is able to consolidate, it will have a chance to intensify. Long way away from that however.

If you use the seasons above that finish at 0-40 ACE for Sept (I doubt it will be that high or that low but 20 seems about right with some activity likely by month end), you end up with this much smaller group of La Nina seasons. 1942 (9.9 Sept) 1956 (9.4 Sept) 2007 (29.0 Sept) 2016 (27.3 Sept) Those are your 30-50 ACE June-Aug, with 0-40 ACE Sept La Nina years. Can narrow down more as September finishes. Very cold in the North & West in January of those years, fairly cold in December & March too. Feb very warm. As a reminder, 20 ACE would be a 100 kt sustained wind hurricane observation recorded at each of the six hour official advisory times...for five days in a row. Since 100 kts x 100 / 10,000 = 1 ace point (1 pt x 5 days x (24 hrs/6 hr space per observation) = 20). We may have the next Atlantic tropical storm in a day or two, but its already pretty far west to have a super long period as a major hurricane starting from nothing, if it develops. In a La Nina context, the 2017 September is useful anti-log - very low solar (we're very high now), very high activity September (175 ACE). You also had more of a classic hot West/cold East Summer (Jun-Aug) in 2017 which we didn't see this year. High solar is probably weakly correlated to inactive hurricane seasons long-term. But its a little hard to tell as we haven't had a whole lot of super high solar years (July-June) in recent times with the Atlantic warmer. July 2024-June 2025 finished at 149 sunspots/month, but prior ~peaks/near peaks have been well over 200-250.

Probably would have been a better backup than Rush who is a statue, but he thinks he is a starter so he was never going to be a Raven and sit behind Lamar.