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36 to 69 here, total sun thru 3:30 with some high clouds sifting in since then.

Sun making a late afternoon appearance!

We were the first stop in the morning and we lived close to the bus yard-the bus had the heat on by the time it reached us, but the seats were frozen solid. Ah the memories...

I mostly remember how cold it was waiting for the school bus every morning during those late 70s winters.

I was still just a twinkly in my dad's eye that winter LOL

It will turn noticeably warmer tomorrow before a weak cool front crosses the region on Wednesday. Highs tomorrow will likely reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s in the warmer spots. The advancing front could trigger some showers or thundershowers. Additional rain is possible Thursday into Saturday as a series of low pressure systems move along the frontal boundary. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -1.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.147 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.4° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Nothing shows 3-6”

Some do. I curse it.

What else shows 3-6” in all areas?

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1978-1979 6 0 2 1964-1965 4 0 3 1967-1968 3 0 - 1966-1967 3 0 4 1987-1988 2 0 - 1983-1984 2 0 - 1981-1982 2 0 - 1980-1981 2 0 5 2015-2016 1 0 - 2013-2014 1 0 - 1984-1985 1 0 - 1976-1977 1 0 - 1975-1976 1 0 - 1973-1974 1 0 - 1969-1970 1 0 - 1963-1964 1 2 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11 NY CARMEL COOP 10 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8 NJ CRANFORD COOP 8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8 NY SUFFERN COOP 8 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 7 NY SCARSDALE COOP 7 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7 CT GROTON COOP 7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6 NY WEST POINT COOP 6 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16 PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13 NJ NEWTON COOP 13 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13 PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9 NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9

Yes. I live 1 mile from there. Was a slightly eerie 2 hours when they thought there was a 2nd shooter on the run.

Yeah, still socked in clouds. 72 now

Euro would get some remnant rain into the region

On the way back from Knoxville yesterday, we drove through an absolute tempest around Kodak. The Morristown/Dandridge area did really well with rain yesterday as did most of Knoxville. TRI has turned predictably dry as this is normally our driest time of the year. There should be some welcome relief this week.

Thankfully it isn’t

With the onset of "official" Autumn, it's time to crank up severe season in the LSV:

There’s the sun. Beautiful now

MDW was able to sneak in a high of 90° on Friday. We are likely done for the year with 90°+ days, so the below will likely be the final overall tally for the year. ...2025 90°+ Day Tally... 29 - MDW 28 - PWK 27 - ORD 27 - DPA 26 - ARR 22 - LOT 20 - RFD 17 - UGN

When the Euro is on an island.. it usually ends badly

Currently 78.4/64.7 at 2:50 pm with partly cloudy skies. Warm, almost hot. I have a bit of grass already up from Friday's planting! If it doesn't shower before dark I may water to help it along.

Areas closer to Southern NJ did. Data for February 18, 1979 through February 19, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 21.0 ESTELL MANOR COOP 19.4 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 18.2 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 18.0 RAHWAY COOP 18.0 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 17.1 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 17.0 PLAINFIELD COOP 17.0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 16.6 Newark Area ThreadEx 16.6 AUDUBON COOP 14.0 BELVIDERE COOP 14.0 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 14.0 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 12.5 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.0 PEMBERTON COOP 12.0 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 12.0 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 12.0 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 11.6 CRANFORD COOP 11.0 CANOE BROOK COOP 11.0 MIDLAND PARK COOP 11.0 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10.5 SANDY HOOK COOP 10.0

Adding more to the fall foliage info, from NPR today. https://www.npr.org/2025/09/22/nx-s1-5550033/fall-leaves-peak-map-2025 Excerpt: New England is currently experiencing drought conditions — despite a wet spring and early summer — which is causing leaves in some places to turn brown and shrivel up. But in other cases, Kosiba says, minor drought can actually make some leaves turn an even deeper red. Kosiba says parts of New England, like where she is in Vermont, are seeing the onset of fall foliage about a week earlier than expected. But the region's varied topography and rainfall patterns make it hard to paint with a broad brush. "So we'll see in some places, where the soil is very shallow and rocky, that we are seeing early leaf drop," she says. "And then on the other side of a hill very close to that location, we might see an area that's really green and hasn't even started the fall foliage process." If you're worried about missing peak Northeast foliage, or planning a last-minute leaf-peeping trip, Kosiba's advice is "just keep driving south." Southern New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic may not see their colors peak until late October or even November. "My thought personally, because I love the fall foliage season, is that it's always good somewhere," she says. "So if it seems a little brown where you are, go a little bit to a different location."

I would think for a SE coast hit, you'd want this to develop well SW so when it turns N and NNE, it's headed towards land at least. For NC - NE impacts, I would think we'd want to see pretty oranges to our N and E. instead (at least on that 12z gfs) it's a ripping trough and westerlies. Also, that's a miserably weak U/L near the Panhandle, and probably would want that wayyyy north and stronger. lol not a good capture setup with the westerlies so closeby