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CMC Looks pretty nice

Ignoring all the AI models?

Think we're getting close to some goalposts here or could this still improve some?

I don't think the 0z NAM is much better aloft, if at all, than 18z. The RGEM is a little worse. The GFS and ICON are a little better. Kind of a wash so far for 0z. I think this is heading towards a scraper or light event unless we see clear positive trends very soon.

Based on recent runs it appears there will be a pretty narrow zone with strong lift as modeled. Not the best outcome for the mental health of our subforum lol.

With RIC at 6", they could realistically get 1-2" on Friday and 2-4" on Sunday, and then they've overachieved climo. lol

Cautiously optimistic. See what it looks like Friday

That would do the entire eastern side of Vermont some good.

If everything goes wrong for northern areas this weekend, central Virginia could conceivably have 15” of snow on Dec 14

Looks like the machines are gonna win this. GFS looks to be caving.

I remember taking a trip for work up to a paper mill north of Montreal that spring. The damage was stunning.

yeah, GFS made a material shift towards a euro-like solution, though i have a feeling that the euro’s overamplification bias may be showing

Looks pretty significant at 500 though.

And gfs is better but not there yet. At least it shows snow now for NYC LOL

Gfs keeps its thin stripe. A little north from 18z

Plenty of time

For once in my life I actually don’t want it to snow too much Friday…lol . We are throwing a big Christmas Party on Sat and may affect turnout if roads get hit again I feel bad for even saying this…..haha

I could see a NAM low developing and maybe clipping southern southeastern zones as it’s blowing up going out - NW bias notwithstanding. But then we fill back in with radar with inverted trough of some sort because… that’s a very deep polar core coming down at mid/upper levels that’s gonna generate a ton of instability, even in this cold air

Marginally so. At least it’s not worse. Needs a good amount of work though

Gfs better

Got a quick coating of snow, roads are covered. Might be some pretty icy conditions out there tonight.

All rain here high today 39f picked up 0.27" of rain. Currently 35f with a 34f dew point. After today's storm I am officially very interested in what the Euro is selling for us on Saturday Night into Sunday.

Tough situation because the euro and the nam are not impossible while on the other hand, the background circumstantial synoptics really support the GFS solution. I’m leaning away from previous GFS total flat solutions. Whole system is kind of weak though so should a compromise take place that is still not good enough. In order to be more than just snow in the air we probably would need a NAM solution to be more correct out right

Sometimes it seems hard to envision a sharp weather pattern change when you’re in a totally opposite pattern at the moment. I remember how cold December 2022 was, especially during Christmastime but then we had straight 50s and 60 degrees right through new year. Patterns can flip on a dime, for better or for worse. The cold has been quite enjoyable but we all know it can’t last forever. It would be a bit unreasonable to believe January won’t at least start out warm. Maybe it doesn’t end up that way in the end, but very likely it ends up warm just by the sheer nature of this cold pattern can’t stick around forever

I’m leery of NAM’s fairly dependable NW bias with cyclogen near east coastal ….however that’s tendency. There are circumstances when that can be a good thing - particularly when there’s very intense llv thermal gradient along a steep frontal slope …elevating into increasing diffluence above. Dec 2005 is an example of that and superior resolution winning the model debate. Not an analog per se… But the higher resolved resolution might find the low level instability axis closer to that gradient, helping to generate intense UVM in that vicinity under which the cyclone generates