All Activity

They had it for about 24 hours then lost it. It’s kinda a delicate balance. Everyone is just focused on snow maps and omg and model bashing but the phasing at about 24 hours is delicate balance between the two waves and just enough energy making it around the base makes the whole trough end up negative later on by putting enough energy out front to tilt the whole thing on its axis. But we’d normally never notice the relatively minor interplay of vort energy taking place if it wasn’t impacting a possible snowstorm. The result is hugely different but the cause is a relatively minor difference in handling how those 2 SWs interact without the trough early on.

Pretty wild, I didn't see this coming but it could also be a windshield wiper effect with such a drastic shift so I can see it correct back east a bit at 0z but, who knows, this whole thing has been really unpredictable.

Geez look at some of those members too. I don't ever recall such a drastic EPS shift in this close range. Op run yes but not the ensembles

Euro AIFS eps

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain. The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination. There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table. Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

I remember reading that AFD. And then the Euro came on board lol

So what are we dealing with? GFS gives a nice dream-like coastal with heavy snow or Euro et al. show an IVT and our best hope is the IVT sets up right over us. Seems like some narrow goalposts. @CAPE @csnavywx any deeper thoughts?

Bloomington, IN about to get rocked

Gfs better gimme summa that good shit it’s smoking on

comical run-to-run difference. We'd have to hope it has a similar shift in store at 0z...

Ohhhh a lot of those have that sexy, sexy loop look

Wankum basically dismissing the Monday storm has me more excited

EPS precip made a huge shift west as expected based on that 500 map.

That includes snow from tomorrow's system.

this is one of the biggest shifts I have ever seen from the EPS at this range. dumbfounding

Yeah I didn't really mean nobody- more like few That's why I made the other thread.

For sure, plus that will definitely bounce around a bit. My jackpot comment was in jest, referring to less than 1” in my neighborhood lol. Verbatim it’s a heartbreaker.

The old joke and sometimes it WOULD happen in these cases is the model that had the storm being impactful would immediately bail when the other ones jumped on board. Knowing the GFS nothing would surprise me such as it abandoning ship and the NAM/ICON/CMC/RGEM all looking like the 18Z euro

lol this just got real

Model noise probably

big improvement with lows

Lol I understand the synoptics. I was joking about PSUs 10,099 posts in 39 seconds about the IVT. I'll run away with my tail tucked between my legs now

Peace. Enjoy all the snow maps and “omg” posts

insane

Some of us are quietly following the evolution and quietly paying attention to the reasoning and the detailed posts. I think @LP08 identified some of this too, briefly. Your post was more detailed. Just saying - some of us do read more post less, but we see the posts and appreciate them.