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Storm track of the nor'easter last week was nice.

Yesterday had a nice fall feel to it.. in person was so much better.. my phone usually doesnt take great pics!

92L is very clearly organizing this morning with a robust and cohesive flare up of thunderstorms overnight. Organizational trends today will be critical as to whether this system manages to take advantage of the more favorable conditions present before shear increases later in the week. A lot of the weak models keep this thing disorganized for 48 hours whereas the stronger ones really start ramping up by tonight/tomorrow morning

Very impressive Southeast ridge in the means since March. So just a continuation of the ongoing pattern. Very 1997-1998 type storm track forecast with the tropical low lifting north from the Gulf through the East into early next week. Sometimes these October storm tracks are an early indication of what we get during the winter. But this is a much stronger east based event than that one was.

This morning was the coldest morning across the area since last spring. Below are the low temperatures and the date we were last this chilly.

This morning was the coldest morning across the area since last spring. Below are the low temperatures and the date we were last this chilly.

Actually this is funny. The incorrect temp is coming is as -13.9C/-17.8C which is 7F/0F. And the correct temp is apparently 7C/0C. So something is getting screwed up with the ASOS units setting.

92L in the Bay of Campeche is looking better today with deep thunderstorms and appears likely that a Hurricane will develop later this week, possibly early this weekend in the Gulf. Hurricane models suggest landfall along the Central Gulf Coast with Google Deep Mind ensembles clustered further East near the Florida Panhandle. Rain chances do look to increase over the weekend locally.

39 awesome walking weather this morning

They’re augmenting the obs now. Human observers ftw KMHT 061053Z 32008KT 10SM CLR M14/M18 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP173 T11391178 $= KMHT 061053Z COR 32008KT 10SM CLR 07/00 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP173 T11391178 $= KMHT 061153Z 33007G13KT 10SM CLR M14/M18 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP179 T11391178 53014 $= KMHT 061153Z COR 33007G13KT 10SM CLR 07/00 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP179 T11391178 53014 $=

The ridge is transient and in response to the tropical system. Nbd

October zzzzzzzzzzz's

47.2 in Muttontown & 48.4 in Syosset this morning.

Guidance is pretty stacked towards this becoming a hurricane at some point. Also starting to look like this becomes the dominant system between it and the EPAC storm, which will have some lessening of shear than we were thinking yesterday.

Sure did. Was standing outside with the dog when I took that picture and it felt like deep autumn and the sky had that late fall/winter crisp clear look. When I was outside last night and the wind was blowing I was thinking to myself, "I am not looking forward to any Arctic snaps where its 10F out with wind whipping"

First morning that really truly felt like autumn.

I wouldn't say that given major El Nino climo....I think lower in latitude has the best shot at above climo snowfall.

Inching closer 44.1 this am in Arlington .

We were really paid back 100 years later!!

This is totally anecdotal, but I really doubt it considering the stretch from which we are just emerging. I think we are on par for some positive regression in terms of snowfall...I understand the CC-oriented counter to that, and it's perfectly valid, so no need to get into that...ultimately all we can do is guess, and that is mine.

39 here this morning.

Perfect Fall morning.

Same for me