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the terpeast storm

Inside, Rendell being a big Birds fan, he would have wanted the game to be played. But he probably would have been under so much pressure to postpone the game. Literally a life/death kinda storm and if someone died because of his decision to play the game it would have been a nightmare and ended his political career. I think we were under a state of emergency...

CONGRATULATIONS! MILLER A's FOR EVERYONE!

Per Webb, HM is very bullish on January. But not sure where he’s getting that from. Everyone seems onboard with a cold December. I’m still not sold on a snowy December though.

I want to say those are "Normalized" or re-calculated in some way. I've seen the -1.3 mentioned by others too.

I've been there winter and summer. It's great in any season really.

Clipper fun on gfs

The AI models have seemed to do well with picking out trends ahead of time. In this case, the low doesn’t look like it’ll be well phased with the incoming lobe of the PV and some of the numerical models and ensembles have shifted a bit farther south. So I don’t think the southerly track is off the table. But I do think that if it trends much farther south it also trends weaker, which could really limit any snow potential in such a marginal airmass.

This touches on the concept of superimposing the effects of multiple agents/forces together. I don't know if CC will bring down lifespans or not. I haven't researched it. But let's assume it does for now. It is important to point out that this effect (if true) would be under the ceteris paribus assumption. But it is almost never the case that the real world plays out in a ceteris paribus manner. Instead other agents/forces are in play that might offset the negative effect CC has on lifespans resulting in no decline at all or perhaps even an increase. Instead of saying CC will necessarily lead to a decline in lifespan I would word it as CC would cause lifespans to be lower than they would be otherwise if CC had not happened. Pure speculation on my part...I could see lifespans continuing to increase despite CC because the positive effects of the advancement in medical treatments among other factors could more than offset the negative effect of CC. The point...the observation of a rising lifespan does not falsify the hypothesis that CC acts to reduce it. Similarly world GDP might still increase despite CC. It's just that it might not be as high as it would be otherwise if CC had not happened. This principal can be applied to a lot of erroneous arguments I see among psuedoskeptics of modern climate change theory. Arguments of this style are often referred to as the reduction fallacy.

Today's edition of the Weeklies for the mid Dec period- hey we can dream a little right? Why not be optimistic heading into the first third of winter. Easy to be pessimistic.

As a fellow competitor I say that there should not be any penalty applied this month.

I'll be in Saranac on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

This was the final haul today . It’s a shame because there’s tiny ones growing and new flowers https://imgur.com/a/h7twWnX#9Hy3Wwc

That’s my baby son’s due date…

You should align your position with the consilience of evidence. The consilience of evidence is contrary to what Lindzen and Happer say. For example... Lindzen says that the Earth has an adaptive iris effect that causes more light to reflect back to space as the planet warms and that will result in little to no warming of the planet overall. And yet here we are with a warming planet and a declining albedo. That's a double whammy for Lindzen's model. Other models like those proposed by [Manabe & Wetherald 1967] long before the psuedoskeptics made their appearance say that the planet will warm and will do so with an amplifying effect as a result of a lowering of albedo. Lindzen talks a big game with an academic style delivery that seems to command authority, but no one uses his models because they don't work in the real world. Mainstream models built upon the consilience of evidence may not be perfect, but at least they actually work. Happer says that the CO2 effect is saturated. But every radiative transfer model in use today says the opposite. The RRTM is one such model that is widely used in global circulation models forecasting high impact weather events in which people's lives are literally at stake. The RRTM is a core module among the physics modules that run within GCMs like the GFS and ECMWF which would be nearly useless without it. The RRTM is also used to design and build space based radiometers for observational meteorology like the ABI onboard the GOES-R satellites. The RRTM says that the effective radiative force of CO2 at 800 ppm is roughly +4 W.m-2 as compared to if CO2 is at 400 ppm. Happer talks a big game with an academic style delivery that seems to command authority, but no one uses his models because they don't work in the real world. Mainstream models built upon the consilience of evidence may not be perfect, but at least they actually work.

Thought we had first high in the 30s today down in the valley, but alas looks like we snuck a 40F in there somewhere. Base of ski area never got above 36F with 2-3” of snow cover. Cold day, and getting some flurries now.

My parents live in Norwell, I live in Concord (MA) - was visiting there last week. Crazy difference.

GFS Ens and ECMWF Ens both agree with a rather warm look across the conus, with the exception of our region and the NE part of the country, during days 8 to 16. The warm up is most pronouced in the center of the country. Canada also warms a bit.

Latest GFS run stunk pretty bad, worse than 12z for the mountains as it had a less amplified and less deep trough.

Think Dendy was correct. Growing season should end here tonight. Was a great 6 months .

We need to restart that early Dec snow heater. Been too long.

Such a beautiful part of the country. Saranac Lake and surrounding areas are a great vacation spot. It would be fun to take one of these small airlines up there.

Could you imagine if we got a legit Dec 5th event? Something like a regionwide 3" - 5" fluff storm? This place would crash from excitement.

Its lazy. They roll that shit out every Fall.