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GEFS looks pretty threatening for SE areas and cape.

And it's over.

12z GFS Ens. definitely upticked on both Thursday's storm and Sunday's.

Will be interesting to see the strength of number one and how that affects number two.

Agree. What are your thoughts on the 17th system?

Well, I guess we can't go more than 24 hours without salt covered roads...ugh.

this has cape special written all over it. It’s a James storm for sure.

Here is the feature I am talking about. See this long arc of moisture feeding Into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys from the eastern Pacific. This is a southerly displaced Pineapple Express(loosely defined I freely admit). The Euro AIFS has had this from time to time. I just think this is not likely. HOWEVER, if the feed only tapped the Gulf...this is plausible and can't be ruled out. Scottie asked if the setup has precedent. I am actually going to change my answer. It does have precedent now that I can see this view, BUT really no other model(exception AIFS) has this. If there is any model that could score a weird coup, its is the GFS...but it just seems like an outlier at this point which has to be discounted (with system 2) until it gets some more support. It would be remarkable or the GFS to nail this....

Pattern than completely collapses

Haha. just came to post the same.

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs. I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

It's not great to have the key shortwave missing or in an unfavorable location on the ICON and GDPS... and also the short range NAM and RDPS. Even by 72 hours it's clearly missing... that's approaching short term modeling range.

True,thats a uptick even since the 12z,not much but something is better than nothing..lol

Back at uva for the rest of my tracking so I’ll get to do analysis on the big screen

Wind with the squall is nuts starting to accumulate

Dec 2017 ish

For what

This is the 4th day of 40+… Been a long time…

Ground caved. Took about two minutes. I've never seen it so so hard so quickly.

DEATH SQUALL

40° and windy with steady flurries here NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

It's snowing here right now

Nice snow squall coming through now

Lol yup. It's a massive cutter with rain to Hudson Bay now. Who knows what the next run will show.