All Activity

The metals markets are completely out of control right now. The paper slammers can't crush it down anymore and there just isn't enough silver to go around. It's being driven by a true physical shortage. Between that and a 7 dollar spread between Shanghai and London, it'll keep going up for now regardless of how "overbought" it is. Now back to weather!

All models showing around 2-3" for most the metro Sat night. We might somehow finish this craptastic month with a respectable amount of snowfall.

Snow is falling! Snow is Blowing all over the place! It's blowing off of the roofs because there's four feet of pow on all the roofs and its also blowin up a snow hurricane off the ground! Visibilities are shot all to hell! It's a milkshake froth! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Nice improvements for most in snowfall over the last 4 runs on the NBM, even if the Euro has me a little worried over its light QPF, lol.

Looks like January should start off cool with an otherwise near normal month temp and precip wise

12z 00z

Based on population weighted heating degree days, a good measure of energy usage, the Conus in Dec won’t be that warm at all! Pop weighted Dec temps are progged to come out to only ~1 F warmer than normal. My estimate is for Chicago to end up Dec 3 BN, Cinci 2.5 BN, Balt. 4.5 BN, Philly 4 BN, NYC 5 BN, and Boston 4.5 BN. Even the upper SE (NC) should come in slightly BN and then ~+1.5 at ATL. SL should be right at normal. DFW should be ~5 AN, DEN ~11 AN, Phoenix 6.5 AN, LA 3 AN and Seattle 4.5 AN. Based strictly on geographic area though, my guess is that the Conus will come out to ~3 AN for Dec (~1 BN E 1/2 and ~7 AN W 1/2) or ~37 F. If it comes out to 3 AN, that wouldn’t be anywhere near the records of 2021 (~5 AN or ~39.3 F) and 2015 (~4.5 AN or ~38.6 F). So, I expect Dec of 2025 on an aerial basis to come out ~2 F colder than 2021 and ~1.5 F colder than 2015. Also, 1939 was ~37.7 F. So, I believe that Dec of 2025 will come out no warmer than 4th warmest Dec since 1895. Also, it’s possible that 1957 and even 2014 end up warmer than 2025 if I’m a little too warm with my 37 F guess by a couple of tenths. @TheClimateChanger

Main overrunning band reaches ELI through NW CT to ALB NY. That continues the multi-cycle trend of pushing this band further north and east into New England.

It’s a very large swath the Euro tries to cut, especially in that Binghamton to Albany corridor. I’m skeptical of that verbatim. Still a nice storm for SW CT and now much of SNE.

I'm going 6 - 10. Someone within 50 or 60 miles of here gets a foot. Same T/TD here.

We’re good for 5-7”. 24/11 now

Euro looks great. Game on

Yessir! Congrats up north! Hopefully an even better distribution for all.

Accu weather has my Brooklyn neighborhood down to 28 while Central Park is 29 at 23:51. A 20 degree drop in 9 hours from the 49 degree reading at 14:51.. as always ….

?... Still shifting north I take it.

Problem is...there aren't many Eric Horsts to be found. We were so fortunate to have him, and you can attest to that first hand.

I mean,Dec should even break Dec records for EQBO

yeah, would angle it more NW-SE than that map implies

Still lean 3-6 here given how quick this thing moves through but fingers crossed we get 6+. I heavily hinted to the wife that getting a new snow blower would be a great Christmas investment as our current one is having issues. That did not happen. At least this shouldn’t be a heavy wet snow to shovel lol

Someone gonna get buried. In 24 hours we'll know who. Best chance is OC north of 17/84, but not ruling out on LI.

I will boldly venture a "yes" response on that, if it looks like the potential for 6"+ was imminent...

Just walked the dog,,,,,23 degrees here in New City = that is all

I wonder... Would they actually upgrade the Winter weather advisory in Hartford to a winter storm warning?

This might be one of the most negative EQBO since we've seen into the early 40's into Jan,tho its still up in the air right now https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

I actually think BGM is more likely to mix with sleet than western LI as crazy as that sounds... because of the track of the 700mb low. Otherwise I agree, good map.