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38F, rain...

Bangor PA. 32° Snow. 1.5”

It all comes down to the TPV piece. You can see early on in NW Canada on the 18z GFS that it is tracking increasingly to the east. That only gets magnified over the course of the run. By game time it’s already scooting out through New England/Ontario/Quebec. It was more around the lakes last run. We can win if that is, as has been mentioned, more SW. I’d guess preferably it sticks around WI/MI, digging south. But there’s no shot while it’s so far east as in this run. Not for most of us.

Just went out to walk the dog.....a fair amount of glaze on the roads. Even though it's 35*, the pavement must be still cold from the past couple days. RN/ZR/SN mix. 35* Miserable

Yeah see my post above…COD had some issues. Looks like COD has been doing this for awhile too. I had been using Pivotal more. Maybe Piv has better smoothing of the datapoints.

They are like one congealed mass of elongated TPV on the GFS/Icon…but esp the GFS. They stay much more independent on euro/canadian and NAM (if we care about clown range NAM)

Actually it may be a COD mapping issue?

Gfs leading the way again. This threat is on life support

Started as a rain/snow/sleet mix here in Blowing Rock. Now all rain but temps crashing fast. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Another classic Charlottesville W

Man ain't that some shit

Yup. We’re in windshield wiper mode now.

That GFS run looks wildly f’ed up. Almost like it didn’t run correctly. There’s all kinds of wtf with the PV and vorticity.

euro and CMC keep the main TPV lobe farther west, GFS and ICON have it leaking east which suppresses heights downstream

At least we have the old EE rule in effect.

WeatherBELL just doesn't seem to want to work today. pivotal map down below

If the GFS is right and it’s a 30mi strip or so that’s gonna get the snow, we won’t know for a few days. Wouldn’t get hung up on where it is. Just nice to have something in the area.

Gfs actually looks worse than the miss at 12z

When's the warm up? Lol

5/155M. Big Alonso fan here but Mets probably did the right thing. They've been trying to move him for the last 18 months. Didn't even make him an offer. Excited for Pete and the orioles. You should get a good two or three years out of him. Not so sure about the years four or five though.

No need...no happy hour with this one, unfortunately

GFS is further west and a bit south

Happy hour smashes a bottle over Maryland’s head