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We don't need a flood, just a steady and soaking rain that totals about 1.5" regionwide. You could parse it out about 0.1" - 0.2" per hour over several hours.

Nice back build and mini train Cranking

You might be able to get another monster despite a very warm winter a la 2016

.04” rain tonight

Everything is training just north of me. Looks like a barrage. Nonstop lighting. Barely a drop here. Best atmosphere to chill outside or take a walk

13.6" is the daily record which still stands for April, but stm total does go to the 2018 event.

point and click is 94 tomorrow in D.C. Plenty of july 4ths have been cooler than that!

Spoke too soon for the north side...

Kind of reminds me of the tornado that crossed I-96 near Weberville on Aug 24, 2023. The bowing line segment swallowed a supercell that had formed out ahead, and it immediately produced a tornado.

Hugely lucky to have those two rounds of storms hit the farm in Fallston pretty flush. Really needed that bolt of fortune for the kinds of reasons EJ noted....

tornado warnings last 2-3 days

Chuck is right, the tendencies you base your ideas on are so small that its not even likely to be causal - its just noise. You literally can't even compare 30 El Ninos in 100 years to 30 La Ninas with reliable outputs because the groups are so small, one of 30 event behaving differently changes the outcome by 3% - that's massive. Saying the events are self destructive is kind of idiotic when the Neutrals are behaviorally very similar to very weak La Ninas. In that sense, the 2/3 scenario is..."Not El Nino", not 'self destruction'. Most La Ninas are actually not followed by El Ninos. Just look at the past 30 years: 1998 - no, 1999 - no, 2000 - no, 2007 - no, 2010 - no, 2011 - no, 2016 - no, 2020 - no, 2021 - no, 2024 - no. Only 2005, 2008, 2017, 2022, 2025 are. Its 2:1 against "self-destruction". If it favored self-destruction it'd be 2:1 the other way. El Ninos are similar too - 2002, 2003, 2014, 2018 were all followed by El Nino/near El Nino, only 2006, 2009, 2015, 2019, 2023 were not. That's basically dead even for 25 years not exactly assuring "self destruction" like you're implying. You're just fixated on noise

There is a tornado in Michigan

Airport reporting 80 mph gusts, also nasty looking tornado on the ground near Carson City

Tornado sirens here. Whatever it is, the circulation passed over, maybe a hair south of me. QLCS protrusion. Got a brief 60 mph gust. Just heavy rain and a few peas now.

Well, we won't have the frequency of strong cool ENSO events.....no Uber-strong events. It's the strongest events that are most likely to trigger the opposite phase.

I agree....I could totally see a weak-neutralish +PDO. Just saying I don't think we are going to do 2023/1972 again.

Good work....backs up @Stormchaserchuck1's research on +QBO warm ENSO being a torch in the east....but I'll bet it's an ice box in the east if you check back in about 337 years or so-

Nearly half and inch of rain across portions of far northern Frederick County, as well as Carroll and Baltimore counties. Yet the two and four inch soil moisture values barely moved on any of the mesonet stations in this area. It really goes to show you how thirsty the vegetation is right now.

On the bike ride home this eve. Not raining, but enough moisture in the atmosphere at sunset?

Classic Chuck... Love you, mean it...your work is great...but your default go-to when the data doesn't illustrate what you theorize that it should is "give it another few centuries, and it will work". Well, perhaps my great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren can dig you up and capitulate, but for now, there is in fact a correlation there. It makes sense because the mechanisms that drive ENSO are self-destructive, which is what perpetuates the cycle. I wrote about almost a decade ago. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/delayed-oscillation-and-newtons-third.html

Getting a shower here, pretty breezy.

Sone pretty good rumbles of thunder. Storms drying up the further east they make it.

We did have that....we went from a super El Niño to a weak La Niña....that is a large swing to the opposite ENSO state.