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First flakes

Samantha?

GYX now seems way overdone based on this thread.

definitely need a refresher

I haven't really paid much attention to the somewhat longer range in awhile. But is the previously thought more favorable NA later this month and early March now looking less likely? I recall there was some discussion awhile back about a PV split, and being on our side of the hemisphere, with a good shot at a return to more blocking around that time period. Not sure of the details though. It doesn't seem like the Pac side is going to do much to become better.

Didn’t take long to saturate. Very Light snow falling 31.8/11

TIT: Trace In Tolland. has a nice ring to it

Oops misprint, That’s what I meant.. my bad

I work with a lot of Richmond folks and whenever they know I like snow or weather they ask about DT.

He still has a huge following so yes!

The low crossing the Great Lakes has pulled milder air in from the plains states and highs in w PA and even w NY have reached high 40s to near 50 F. This mild sector will rapidly collapse southeast tonight but especially for those south of Newark, don't be surprised if there's a brief spike in temperatures to around 40-43 F for a few hours around midnight. The milder air will not likely reach the surface for lower Hudson valley, parts of metro NYC and most of Long Island. By morning a colder WNW flow will have arrived and any brief spell above 35 F will be replaced by that cooler air mass. This path for brief warming probably also defines the southern limit of where measurable snow could fall from the system, other than any briefly heavy snow showers in the WNW flow.

lol DT. He is still relevant?

Yeah tons of dry air to overcome which is concerning.

Same. If I were to change anything with that map I'd make it 1-2 but I think 1-3 is fine

While I believe it could still turn colder to end February as per the ECMWF weeklies, I tend to agree that the risk of a return of severe cold in the East is probably largely over.

Agreed, but still seems like it would be some thermal issues

Snow has melted off the outdoor furniture, some on the roof, and on the deck. Not so much on the frozen ground. Still full coverage around 5" most places.

if you were just looking at radar you'd think I had at least an inch by now but just a few flakes, meh my way to a dusting...

I can get down wit dat

1-3. Better confidence 1-2.

That radar in NY state looks pretty solid

Gfs still steady

You have a forecast? Hard and fast not iffy

There are only a handful of ensemble members showing snow in south-central Virginia. Of those, there are a few outliers showing significant amounts of snow, and they are skewing the snowfall mean.

When they retire the Nams they can take the HRRR with them, I think the only place it’s accurate for is Stowe VT