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That storm wasn’t even forecast to get up in here at first. Kept trending and trending.

For sure. It as a very good storm, but We’ve had much better here since then.

Funny thing is people in this region would whine incessantly about the Mid-Atlantic and south getting smoked. 100%. LBSW and such.

Ya, They made em better after that lol.

Also by surplus” I don’t mean to imply that the model is in error with all that speed, but it could be just the same I meant surplus in the context of it’s just not needed and unwanted if you’re a storm enthusiast cause it’s definitely interfering negatively

Nice 34" pack after 1/96. I remember my Siberian husky was able to completely bury himself after that one

we got this a week after I got my old bravada, AWD, and we went out pub crawling in it, snowing so hard at on point I had to use the glow of the street lights to navigate, we got 23" I believe in Waterbury on that one, fun times

Another 1 " of fluff ..Looks like another scrape and peel with the shovel tomorrow morning.... Oh wait, we have some snow and freezing rain tomorrow night. So we can get some variety of scraping slush. I hate to be the debbie downer, but this length of cold with out a 12+ snow storm, I will take a 2023-2024 winter any day of the week.

Per WxBell’s version of the GEFS’ mean PNA, the trend of the last few days for both the length and strength of the midmonth +PNA has been a sharp increase: watch as the midmonth green line above 0 on each of these images gets longer and peaks higher: - 0Z 1/2 run: <1 day >0 (Jan 12th); max amp +0.1 (Jan 12th) - 0Z 1/3 run: 3 days>0 (Jan 11th-13th); max amp +0.5 (Jan 12th) - 0Z 1/4 run: 4.5 days>0 (Jan 10th-14th); max amp +0.7 (Jan 11th) -0Z 1/5 run: 6 days>0 (Jan 9th-15th); max amp +1.2 (Jan 13th) -18Z 1/5 run: 8 days>0 (Jan 9th-17th); max amp +1.7 (Jan 14th) Here are those 5 images in a GIF:

When we got storms

They don't make them like they used to.

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that… So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through. The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that. This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen.

I’d almost book that snow in Danville. Having spinal fusion surgery on the 14th so it will snow that weekend just like my hip replacement late dec 2016 featured brutal cold n snow the following weekend. .

It’s been a very wintery winter, just not memorable so far.

Absolutely it’s fun. Too many cancel winter when the majority of snows happen in February. When the deep Arctic air is retreating. Most January’s are very cold & dry. Hopefully it will snow soon but it’s sure nice being in the 60’s.

Got about an inch here, still light snow.

Hopefully, we didn’t speak too soon.

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

was about to post - we are rollin right now!!

Yeah it looks like we get dicked around on Sunday.

Caps having a night!

Not bad. At least it’s interesting and some of us can enjoy the warm up.

heh … there’s definitely a speed surplus problem on this GFS run tho As this pattern turns you don’t no wanna end up compressed and velocity soaked

Enjoy your grilling, but it hasn’t thawed yet here in the valley where you and I live. It was about 43 when you were starting your grill and it is 37 now.

JB is a clown. No one should take him seriously anymore.