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What’s the h word?

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here.

In my mind right now - the "floor" is probably something like a semi-solid squall line of widespread 50-60mph winds with the synoptic winds behind it. Still could yield a lot of damage reports which could verify a high percentage (even if not high CIG) I suppose. I guess I could see a scenario where they pull the trigger on a high - but I agree with others that it would not be before 1630z tomorrow - and if they did it we'd potentially see one of those mesoscale discussions a couple hours before the actual outlook update to say "CATEGORICAL UPGRADE" I still think this is a moderate risk through and through - but can't deny some of the dynamics at play. If people "want" a high risk just for the wow factor - the messaging has already been intense enough all weekend to get the word out.

BOX going big or go home with widespread 2-3” rainfall amounts in SNE

I’d rather not widespread severe and risk having trees fall on our house.

Yeah, Wausau seems to be the cutoff for true winters in WI. I go up there a few times each winter for snowmobiling and relaxation. The gateway to the northwoods, a beautiful area especially when you get into the forests north of town.

I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow. If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems. Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high. But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize.

https://x.com/JBuchinskyWX/status/2033233276844773694

The AI models handled this storm very poorly, kind of disappointing tbh.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON D.C... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. ...East... No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along with substantial early-day convection south, both render some uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of the ENH-MDT risk areas. A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL coast. Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal warm-moist sector. Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS. This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential in the Northeast near sunset. ..Grams.. 03/15/2026

At day 2 ya don’t see it yet. But if we are clearing by afternoon tomorrow then maybe.

Still just 40 degrees here. We're not gonna get anywhere near the forecast high temps today with the cloudy skies and east winds. A nasty raw day today.

Looks like we might get a repeat of what the east coast dealt with last week with their frontal snow. I think it was mostly in the 2-3 range.

Yes he's extremely conservative.

My place went from calm winds and cold yesterday, now to over 30mph wind gusts, warm front, mid 60's

Yep - looks like zero changes locally. Discussion mentions continued uncertainty. The messaging is already intense - I think it's the right call not to bump to a HIGH.

Yup. 4 of the 5 were cold winters here. The huge exception being 1889-90 which was also warm and equally snowless. This year was way more extreme than normal, but let's not forget a general rule of thumb that relative to climo, a good winter east is usually meh west and vice versa.

Cary#s and McHenry, this is your moment

Doritos nacho cheese chip risk .

Flyers really piss me off. That is all.

And wasn't it you who said he is conservative normally? My personal thought is that we *don't* go to high risk - but it doesn't lessen the impact to many people that this system may have.

130 update looks like a hold

15 degree drop 55 to 40 in the past 65 min.

I’m bad at timing lol but rush hour give or take an hour. The NAM is like 7 pm but they tend to have these events later than they actually are.

I very much doubt we will ever see a D2 high risk in the Mid-Atlantic. Even in a scenario like this - some form of failure mode exists.