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GEFS look great. North of the Op.

An amazing run just 3 to 4 days out! I will say I'm very cautious of those totals but crap cut that in half and thats still one hell of a storm. So we have the Euro and the GFS. The next 48 hours will be telling of what this system could do. Honestly tracking this system had been a delight and fun.

Wait until the models catch up with the depth of the cold once we get closer and lucy shows up.

This is the banter I’m here for .

Some nice hits there too with a chunk of left leaning members.

Mark Mancuso was still hitting 2-5” in the interior at 630am that morning. I ended up with 18” (no clearing) in Auburn, NH.

And that's with the awful 12Z GFS still in the mix, though it apparently is overwhelmed with all the other inputs that were still looking good. 18Z won't be in there until (I believe) the next NBM winter update cycle at 01Z.

.4-.7" qpf throughout SNE gets plowable snow through CNE

yeah you crushed it bro

If you know mother natures number call her and tell her that we will take all she can give at this point. .

My prediction earlier today that the 12z GFS was only a "blip" nailed it. GFS is back from 1.5" to a foot.

Christmas?? Im still having ptsd from the January system where virga robbed us for the first 5 hours and then it snowed for an hour and then poured sleet. .

I'd ask about Bernie Rayno but he's more of the office type. Cantore is the field attack dog. He'll sniff out the jack ahead of time.

19z NBM is gaudy to say the least. That’s an incredibly impressive signal at this lead.

Great I better get ready here then to be buried!

Big potential here imo . Good look up top, confluence out in front of the NS shortwave, surface HP to the north, a significant shortwave moving across the deep south inducing low pressure off the SE coast, and plenty of cold air in place. Also the possibility of a phase.

The 12z trended a bit warmer I wonder if that will have any influence on how north the storm come?

Reviving this concept... think @yoda and @nj2va said they were interested? I'm in Penn Quarter for work but could meet anywhere in DC/Arlington zone. Open to suggestions, wonder if we want a separate thread.

You can see here how the timing is slightly off and instead of a consolidated trough, it gets elongated, weakens, and gets kicked East at the last momiute. Still positive trends.

I just went and bought a snowblower based off of this post

18z GEFS…solid bump

Cantore is headed to Washington DC.

FYI that is taking sleet and considering it snow

I love those "blizzards" with 5-15 mph winds

Phew. Remember how we felt at Christmas? Last year when we whiffed? We’re on track to make up for it and then some…