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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Seriousf'nly????? Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28. -
Radar looks like ass
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Active meso's at the moment
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2026-2027 El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Damn, I was expecting it vault positive as soon as the new EURO run modeled a 2.5 ONI next fall. -
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I think the Pens are the absolute best matchup for the Flyers, I think they'd be heavy underdogs for anyone else. Glad to have some postseason hockey though. I have a broken foot right now but I'm still going to try to go to game 3. Let go Flyers!
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2026-2027 El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That isn't what I said......what I said was the majority of the excessive warmth from the 2015 was stored in the western Pacific, which triggered a default cool ENSO paradigm moving forward. That being said, there actually is a documented propensity for powerful ENSO events to trigger opposite phases..it's called the delayed oscillation theory. 72-73 was followed by La Nina....1982-1983....followed by la Nina....1997, 2015 and 2023...ditto. -
77.8° may do it.
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They should be eliminating the amount of regular season games and expanding the post season. They also need to go back to seeding by conference 1-8 even though the flyers benefitted from it this year. I think regular season hockey is a slog and I'm a hockey guy.
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Seabreeze kicked in.
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Jealous. 59F up here.
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81 here.. we roast
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We've seem to be busting low on temps in Albemarle. Clouds stuck around for a while this morning and now we've got some wispy high altitude crud floating by as well. Forecast said 89 but we've only managed 84 as of 2:45pm. Same thing happened yesterday. Forecast was 82, high ended up being 77.
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Popped up to 84. Pool up to 72
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Was wondering if that could possibly be the first PDS watch of the year. Might not be enough to reach that criteria but it could be close.
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I was in between 6-7 grades. Didn’t bother to go back and look at records but I do remember the family’s annual Myrtle Beach trip first week of June. Everyone was commenting on how unusual it was to be in the 90s. Don’t remember much about the rest of the summer except a lot of Boston, Frampton, Marshall Tucker, and Jimmy Buffet.
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At least we won't have to wait as long for the next NHL season to start. With the season expanding from 82 to 84 games, the 2026-27 NHL season will start on September 29 and end on April 10: https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/2037514216995787011
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It's true for sure there. Around here it's the opposite-BDR is right on the water on a penisula so right now it's 76 there but in the low to mid 80's just inland...some of these stations are in places that aren't representative of the weather for most of the area they serve.
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DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a quasi-stationary boundary extending from central/northern IA into southern/central WI, with an additional composite outflow boundary farther south from northeast IA into northern IL. Over the next few hours, continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) should erode remaining inhibition at the base a substantial EML, resulting in the development of strong surface-based buoyancy (upwards of 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). As this occurs, initial thunderstorm development is expected across parts of central/eastern IA near the intersecting boundaries by around 19-22Z -- aided by a subtle frontal wave tracking eastward along the quasi-stationary boundary. The strongly unstable air mass coupled with 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor rapid thunderstorm organization/intensification into semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Initially, very large to giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts will be the main concern with potentially splitting supercells -- given a mostly straight hodograph. However, a south-southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen across the area later this afternoon into the evening and likely favor a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with a quickly increasing tornado risk. The strong buoyancy and 200-300+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support strong to intense tornadoes with any longer-lived supercells, along with a continued risk of giant hail and severe gusts. Eventually, thunderstorms may have a tendency of growing upscale into clusters with eastward extent, which will yield an increasing risk of damaging wind swaths.
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None of yall are going to see rain the rest of the month. Good luck with the scorpions.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere -
84 at KFIT - Tip ftw
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2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Don't know if it's been mentioned here but NOAA March PDO came in at -1.44. That may not seem like much because we've had so much -2 to -4, but -1.44 is still strongly negative. Top 15-20%. -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't really think El Nino's trigger La Nina's and -PDO's. -
ACY has always been a little misleading to me. The weather stations in town are around 70. The airport is something like 10-12 miles inland. DIX radar shows the seabreeze inching its way inland but at times being pinned to the barrier islands.
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