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Thats a bummer. Some feel the Mid Atlantic will do well because it is a Nina and its December, however I think we end the month below normal snowfall here, which by Dec. climo is not that much anyway, as far as temps its up and down. Basically nothing remarkable down here. Winters are not great anymore for cold and snowlovers in my hood.

Of course it's not impossible.

Dec 6th it is !

Same page with him on that, but I think we see a reversal in February.

It’s the exact same thing every year for the past 5 years or so. Welcome to our new normal of Pacific warm dominated weather pattern with a sprinkle of flat ridges from the warm Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic this the cause of your erratic rainfall amounts and very little snow.

I was thinking similarly. If it stays warm up north and doesn't build serious cold early when it's dark, what's left for us later. Considering the warmer background state it seems that as the cold degrades winter will struggle to stay.

December will be very good for us...it's the mid Atlantic that will take the shaft. Not worried in the least. My December analogs show this well.

I think I'll do fine in December.

Don’t worry. I always start off strong when there’s nothing to lose. in 45 days. I’ll be falling apart.

Well, I have completed some deep analysis across all of the Chester County and SE Berks County PA climate sites to see how often we have seen a White Christmas here in the western Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and SE Berks Counties. Now what is up for debate is what represents a White Christmas?? For purposes of this exercise, I am considering measurable snow on the ground (+0.2") on either December 24th or December 25th before midnight. Some interesting statistics of note. We have received Holiday Week snow during Christmas week (December 17th through 25th) in 77 of the 132 years or 58% of all Christmas seasons We experience a White Christmas somewhere in Chester/SE Berks Counties about 1 out of every 3 years or 34% of all years. We have received measurable snow on 29 Christmas Eve or Days (22%) 16 measurable snows on Christmas Eve 13 measurable snows on Christmas Day One inch or more snow was on the ground: 32 times on Christmas Eve (24%) 31 times on Christmas Day (23%) Our last White Christmas was last Christmas Eve Day when 0.5” fell at East Nantmeal and 0.4” at Octoraro Lake on December 24th. Below is the number of White Christmases by Decade including the partial decades of the 1890’s and our current decade the 2020’s.

Well, I have completed some deep analysis across all of the Chester County and SE Berks County PA climate sites to see how often we have seen a White Christmas here in the western Philadelphia suburbs of Chester and SE Berks Counties. Now what is up for debate is what represents a White Christmas?? For purposes of this exercise, I am considering measurable snow on the ground (+0.2") on either December 24th or December 25th before midnight. Some interesting statistics of note. We have received Holiday Week snow during Christmas week (December 17th through 25th) in 77 of the 132 years or 58% of all Christmas seasons We experience a White Christmas somewhere in Chester/SE Berks Counties about 1 out of every 3 years or 34% of all years. We have received measurable snow on 29 Christmas Eve or Days (22%) 16 measurable snows on Christmas Eve 13 measurable snows on Christmas Day One inch or more snow was on the ground: 32 times on Christmas Eve (24%) 31 times on Christmas Day (23%) Our last White Christmas was last Christmas Eve Day when 0.5” fell at East Nantmeal and 0.4” at Octoraro Lake on December 24th. Below is the number of White Christmases by Decade including the partial decades of the 1890’s and our current decade the 2020’s.

The latest week 3-4 CPC outlook:

Yes, I hear its not full blown. I guess we cannot count on a stratwarm in late winter since they're rare. if we end up below normal snowfall in Dec, the best of winters long nights and snow potential may be gone for the season. Hoping this comes together for us.

It's certainly affecting the spring locations where some of the bottled water comes from.

Looks encouraging, because some are worried about the SER and a rebounding PV in December. If you simply look at an East Coast Nina in December you would expect the look that you have posted in the 18z GFS.

Definitely not my first TV experience seeing how I was on air almost every weekend for a time. But! It was really fun working with the Outdoors MD crew! Super fun to work with and loved their stories of working other segments. Their videographer who does all the underwater stuff left for Greenland to film sharks just after we wrapped. Lucky.

Had a few raindrops hit the windshield on the drive home from work. Guess it wasn't a total shutout for today's system.

HH GFS. Scandi ridge building into GL, +PNA, and an avocado trough digging south. Just a random op run ofc, but continuing to see the same idea across guidance as we head into the first week of Met winter.

Eskimo Joe I have a special message board, ScienceWeather 2 which is a phpBB3 board, where I post special stuff. This definitely qualifies!

Hour 276....we have some things to get worked out. The difference in the Euro AIFS and GFS ta 18z over Nashville is 58 degrees. The Real Feel on the AIFS is 3. The GFS is 61. The AIFS did not dig into the SW w/ the SLP FWIW, but it did the second. That still allowed a massive cold front to crash eastward on Dec 3 on the AIFS. The AIFS even dropped 1-3" of snow north of I-40 from Nashville eastward.

Models converging on a little clipper moving through the area Sunday-Monday. Not much room but let’s amp that up a little.

That's a great map.

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November will likely turn colder. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,392nd consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +26.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.707 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.6° (1.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.