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He's playing his reverse psychology game, it'll change once something good hits us.

Clouds seem to be the only thing preventing our afternoon highs from torching.

Just got through a cloud spoke here from the typical GL low, but it's gotten sunny again. The afternoon is looking prime: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=02&length=12 OTOH, New York State is cloudy...because it usually is. They're definitely on the wrong side of the Great Lakes with the exception of LES which would probably get played out after a while.

We shall see if he gets some playing time. That's exactly what he needs. Clearly has more talent than the 2 turds currently playing OG.

Even getting some flurries here currently

Another day of clouds here. The forecast was for mostly sunny. But, so far 90 % of this day has been mostly cloudy. A theme the last 10 months.

having to drive back north on sunday, I'm watching this closely, but am honestly more just excited for something to track

As I said, we will also want to see GEFS as comparison, not just the EPS

Look who keeps giving me weenies

Steady snow here in Charlotte, just south of Burlington. There’s about a half an inch on the ground. Temp was 35°F at onset with a dewpoint of 23°F. We have bottomed out at 31° here in the snow as the column saturated.

I am trying to figure out,is someone really saying it is not? And if so how can they say that?

Foothills areas haven't had a big snow in February since 2014.

in Fab Febs defense, it actually produced our (my) biggest storm since 2018 last year

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need.

Easy toss.

Don't forget magic March.

Colder trend on the gfs and cmc for those storms. Lets see if it continues.

Canadian is an easy toss!!

Same posters doom posters, every winter; just accept it and move on.

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.

Freezing fog in some locations. 30 for the low here

Interesting AO forecast. Lots of spread, and not like the last two years. The strat warming( CW ) not influencing the AO, by a lack of coupling. As mentioned later in this post, in 1958 and 1968 they did couple but several weeks later. Giuseppe Petricca @gmrpetricca 47m Today's zonal GPH chart gives us a good example of uncoupled/limited coupling tropo-strato in the forecast. Strong stratospheric anomalies are present in the 10–50 hPa layer (and above - red rectangle), but below 100-200hPa, the situation is different, with limited vertical coupling (blue rectangle). While the stratosphere maintains a persistent positive anomaly pattern, at least until towards the end of the run, these signals do not propagate downward in a way that would typically influence lower-level circulation (for example, look at the orange/red anomalies back at the start of October, where they covered the entire column). In the troposphere, anomalies remain more variable and horizontally confined, indicating that the two atmospheric levels are acting more or less "on their own".

On the 12z GFS, we are closer to the cold side of the strong thermal boundary modeled to set up in early December. I expect this boundary to nose southward and affect the north country, but it could potentially push even further south. I'd rather see weaker waves eject northeastward and slowly decay instead of consolidated ULLs pumping the east coast ridge. We could really use some well-timed suppression. The subtle upper level interactions will have huge implications on surface weather over this holiday period and beyond.

This is clearly phase 8

light but steady snow has started here. edit: not so steady but still light