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Our forecast says mid 20s with a chance of showers on Monday night… better not snow, that would not be good for foliage!

WB 18Z GFS for weekend front and overrunning wave potential compared to 0Z.

This one probably isn't for us. It looked that way last night when I made a couple posts about it. Not much change 24 hours later. I'm not mad about it at all, but there will probably be enough moisture to be annoying here. I'll take the clouds but give me a dry weekend.

September 2026 at DCA was the 21sth warmest September in DC history with an average temperature of 73.5 degrees -- 1.1 above the 1991-2020 normal. January -September 2026 at DCA was about the 18th warmest first nine months in DC history with an average temperature of 62.8 degrees. September 2026 precipitation at DCA totaled 4.26 inches, 0.33 above the 1991-2020 September normal of 3.93 inches. For the first nine months of 2026, DCA precipitation totaled 25.82 inches, 6.02 below the 1991-2020 normal of 31.84 and the 24th dryest in DC history. However, IAD precipitation totaled 33.20 inches, 0.04 above the 1991-2020 normal of 33.16 inches.

Octorcher?

With that in mind, the pdo stopped falling per WCS. Lowest it got was -1.8, now its up to -1.64 today. Should get back to near neutral in a month or so

I know without a doubt in my mind, that I will receive a quarter inch of rain in Buda thru October 12. Everytime forecasters go on and on about all the intricacies of this setup, like the 2 inch PWATs, I get next to nothing. 100 miles west of Buda will be obliterated by a foot of fresh rain. This is what always happens down here. THAT, is why we have a catastrophic drought and we will always have one, throughout this so-called strong El Nino. Sometimes I wish I were back in Washington DC. At least they get nice and 33 degree cold with rainstorm after rainstorm after gray bone chilling rainstorm after rainstorm with Ninos. We don't. We get sun, we get hot, we are dry as a proverbial popcorn fart and we always will be dry. They are already trimming amounts. They are already trimming the chance of precip per day. Here's the BAD news, this system will move super fast over Buda. That's why we will be extremely fortunate to pick up a quarter of an inch of rain. The more we get trimmed, the more we get denied. That's livin' in the Southwest and that's my neighborhood. Always short on rain, always long on hot as hell and dry. And windy too. Two reasons Buda does not get rain.... 1) I am CURSED for LIFE. All storms jump over us or evaporate. 2) Klingon Anti Rain Shield over my region. It deflects most rainstorms. My curse obliterates all the others the Shield missed.

The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.

DCA: +0.9 NYC: +0.7 BOS: +0.7 ORD: +1.2 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +1.0 DEN: +1.8 PHX: +1.2 SEA: +2.4

Yea get out the boats

NH Mid-Am is at Mt. Washington this coming Monday - Wednesday. What am I in for weather wise?

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.5 OCTOBER

Teleconnectors are collapsing too. Not sure what that's all about ...lest whether it's believable. But the big positive PNA may be in trouble if real.

Uh-oh and ooops

Will be interesting to see how the PDO responds through October with recurving typhoons on the menu for the month. Next one getting warmed up in the batters box now. Choi-wan. Which looks potentially stronger than Surigae was. TBD. Beyond that looks like pretty good chances for something to follow up too.

ABS challenge ftw...ain't that some crazy $hit!

Euro AI looks stormy over the next two weeks. A tough stretch for Epstein.

I was up on wachusett today. Some pretty spots for sure. Hit or Miss still. Haven't been up there in years, looks like the forest has taken quite a beating. Lots of dead oaks from past gypsy moth infestation. Beech trees are dying from BLD. Shame.

Got to 78 here. Clouds won the day again after some breaks earlier.

The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.