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The above noted colder GEFS trend for early Dec continued with the 12Z run.

Canadian was cold, Euro running now.

December 2010 is the only one that's reasonable. At least that happened in the newer climate. (It's not a good analog, but due to other things... like near solar min and strong la nina, features we don't have this year. Maybe it could work if we have a strong la nina in place in December 2028, when we're closer to a solar min.) December 1983 is an older, colder climate. Not likely to happen unless we have a Pinatubo event. (83-84 actually would have been a very good analog for 95-96.) December 1989, well, that was a once-in-a-lifetime event. A coldest December on record, followed by an early turn to spring (and never looking back) is almost certainly never going to happen again.

1000% agree...

Agreed. Juice it up

Ya know, this wasn’t far off to northeast North Carolina considering

UKIE stayed south FWIW. Is the Canadian delayed?

December 3

I agree with you. Ya, just trying to get reasonable and accurate info is all. It’s tough when some folks say things are slipping away, just looking for a MET to chime in and reassure them that it’s not. That’s the BS nobody needs.

December 3

soon we'll get randy's pbp

Can’t believe it’s only a week out! Definitely our first realistic window with pattern support (and ofc the cmc is delayed)

Definitely aggressive with the waa. Curious to see 12z euro

For the weenies out there. I got the windows wxstar 4000 simulator setup on my computer. I just need to get the playlists going. Now I won’t see a +SN ob all season. Screen Recording 2025-11-25 120356.mp4

yeah lots of cutters that year which led to icy conditions

Yea this is a big test of winter expectations and everyone is carrying almost a decade of scar tissue with them

I would say we've much less matured rather than being hurt time and time again by rug pull after rug pulls. especially last season in february

A well timed trailing wave with cold coming in behind the initial low is a pretty common and uncomplicated way to get some snow here. The advertised pattern is conducive.

% for >3" is lower than the 6z run for Chicago.

Models are looking somewhat interesting for next week. GFS/Euro both give us a few inches of snow from a SWFE next Tuesday.

Yeah why bother? Lol Although I don't care how far out in lala land it is...clown maps like this still make me mad just because of the mere image of the fringeline nobody can explain

Agreed but we have to watch the SE ridge since the PNA is going to be negative.

We know what happens next

def taking on a more traditional snow storm evolution, obviously slp track trending wrong way for non-wisconsin posters but still time there idk about u guys but i'm very over the strung out and sw cutoff rigmarole we've been dealing with the past few years, remember negatively tilted troughs?