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Watch up till 8pm

Yeah I'm right in the thick of it and the dreaded back-building keeps happening every time I think the back edge is near. Over an inch and a half now. Developing....

So close… going to slide just south of me

Just had some random lightning strike here in New Providence from that storm near the Rt78/287 interchange. Was just out cleaning the gutters real quick and probably would have crapped myself if I was up on the ladder. lol

brief pop up shower here with more all around

Slight risk for South Jersey Alley.

Several factors have me betting the under today. This is just a gut instinct. Storms just fired a bit to the east of the metros now moving away - leaving cloud cover. To the west I see activity but it would really need to generate. Id be more excited if we had bright sun at 1:25 pm. Not to be a Debbie but I am taking the under today for the widespread flooding. I have not looked at a model sounding - I've just lived here most of my life. Disclaimer: I do not have a red met tag.

Yeah.. same here in Rockaway Mall/Borough area.

Hoping that stuff in WV can hold together for later.

WB 16Z HRRR has heavier storms in western zones by 6pm.

The NWS just posted instructions on how to bake a lasagna in your mailbox

That's a queer choir you're preaching to.

I'd watch the potential for a tornado or two across the Connecticut shoreline and especially Long Island.

Severe Thunderstorm watch issued for much of the area

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up east of the mountains.

And so it begins....Flood Warnings have been issued.

Reds touching me on radar I have drizzle

My area is set to be split again. I've got a stiff breeze and cloudy skies but nada is heading this way at the moment, unless more pops along a favorable line. I could play basketball on the front lawn right now.

I would say it is. I asked xAI's Grok to estimate what the climate of New York City would have looked like at the height of the last glacial maximum. I think most here would agree that this is MILES better than the current climate. Month Estimated Mean Temperature (°C) Estimated Mean Temperature (°F) January -15 to -10°C 5 to 14°F February -14 to -9°C 7 to 16°F March -10 to -5°C 14 to 23°F April -3 to 2°C 27 to 36°F May 3 to 8°C 37 to 46°F June 10 to 15°C 50 to 59°F July 12 to 17°C 54 to 63°F August 10 to 15°C 50 to 59°F September 5 to 10°C 41 to 50°F October 0 to 5°C 32 to 41°F November -5 to 0°C 23 to 32°F December -12 to -7°C 10 to 19°F Winter (Dec–Feb): Very cold, with means likely between -15°C and -7°C (5–19°F), similar to modern subarctic or high-latitude tundra climates. Frequent snow was probable, but low precipitation meant less accumulation than in modern snowy regions like upstate New York. Summer (Jun–Aug): Short and cool, with July means likely 12–17°C (54–63°F), resembling modern high-latitude coastal areas (e.g., parts of Iceland or northern Canada). Proximity to the ice sheet and cold Atlantic Ocean currents kept summers chilly. Precipitation and Snow: The climate was drier than today due to cold air holding less moisture. Snow was common in winter, but total accumulation was likely moderate, with a tundra-like landscape. Permafrost was widespread, affecting soil and vegetation. Ice Sheet Influence: The Laurentide Ice Sheet, terminating near Long Island, would have cooled NYC via cold air drainage and albedo effects. Cold ocean currents along the Atlantic coast further suppressed temperatures. Variability: Daily and annual variability was likely high, with cold snaps in winter and occasional warm days in summer. Strong winds from the ice sheet (katabatic winds) could have made conditions feel even colder.

Eh tobacco smoking takes 5-10 years and often decades off peoples life

I'm OK with a couple of degrees. Things could adapt, and there are indeed benefits for some. Beyond that though, I think it introduces more problems, some of which are already unfolding like melting glaciers, rising seas, and a positive feedback loop that keeps it all going. Regarding your comment on stopping driving cars - not going to happen. I am waiting for a day when I could buy a relatively inexpensive independently duel powered vehicle, and I'm in. In other words, the gasoline engine is ready to fire up if I run out of battery. And eventually, I think, among other problems, we're going to be running into problems of sourcing EV batteries, and disposal of spent batteries. Cars by themselves are only part of the issue. It's also the sheer demand of goods and services in this country, as well as our throw away culture. By a TV, don't like it in a year, or want a better one, or some minor glitch prevents it from working properly? No problem, just toss it and by a new one.

I don't think one night in the upper 30s would do much harm to corn/maize. Obviously, if it was consistently cold (and/or moist) that would affect growth. Consistently warm overnight temperatures are a bigger concern because the plant can respire through the night and burn stored energy faster than it can be replenished. Corn is native to higher latitudes in Mexico. It does best with overnight lows from in the 50s/low 60s.

Storms firing now around Smithtown/Hauppauge area on the boundary.

What a difference up here from yesterday, currently 66/63 and breezy as more rain moves in, I have to admit there is an early fall feel out there for now.

It's managing to squeeze by a mile to my south