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As you cloud up it’s breaking up in SNE

And it’s warm already

Oh look Sunday now is a rainer after dry forecasts . Third one in a row . Something we should see a lot if this winter .. dry forecasts turning into warm and wet

Next Spring coming up quick...less than five months!

CANSIPS is unquestionably too cold.

Happy October! My favorite color!

The yearly max/min temp is always a fun one to watch. In 2026, the max at Detroit was 97F and the min -10F. Even with a mild winter we will likely still go below zero. The avg temp for summer here is 72.3F and winter 28.4F, a difference of about 44F.

+1.5 +1.5 +1 All three months +QPF... Honestly for the interior Rt.2 N that isn't a terrible look Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

El nino already starting to push an active southern jet stream down your way over the next couple weeks.

It looks like the strong +AO pushed the mid-high lat ridges further south

Interesting! I knew it'd be close to the average, I was thinking a little closer though. I figured the past 10 days would have cancelled out the first 10 days. I guess it kinda did.... Blaming September's relatively warm nights for this one.

17.4 (1983) Going back all the way to 1851, only 3 had lower ACE than 1983 and all of them could have been higher in reality due to being way before the satellite era: 1914, 1925, 1907 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Slowly getting there...

The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution.

That's averaging 4.57"/month. Projected over 12 months, it's nearly 55". I'd guess that's a bit AN; 45-50 seems more likely. My average here is currently 48.6". Foggy 50 has turned to blue sky 60s.

Cansips is looking diesel. Does anybody know why it has that stubborn small blob of AN temps right over the Chesapeake for the winter? It's been there for a number of runs now. Is it something to do with bay water temps that it's picking up on?

I ended up getting only ~2.55” of rainfall in Sept, which is well below the longterm average of >4.5”. The upcoming progged significant rainfall in early Oct here would be most welcomed!

I was going to say, I haven't seen this much activity non Winter since 2005 lol

I know 1914 has lowest ACE on record. I consider anything not in the satellite era questionable. In the satellite era what season has lowest ACE?

Thankfully you can drive 9 hours to 300" of snowfall a Winter, or a few hours to the mountains.

Breaks in the clouds now https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/satellite/img/vis_nj_anim.gif

Don’t sleep on the Union. 12 game unbeaten streak since the World Cup. They’ve gone from last place to solidly in a playoff spot.

Maybe we'll get a surprise -nao for the Winter. It's felt cool lately, in Sept I had 3 straight nights in the 40s and an early end to Summer locally for the 3rd straight year. I keep saying, hard to believe it can't cool down 30 more degrees for the Winter. The last 2 years had these late Summer/Sept patterns too, and they got cold for the Winter. With the east-based Nino/-PDO completely unfavorable for cold, I keep thinking where would it come from? Maybe the NAO?