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Yup. There is nothing wrong with several 3-5" type ordeals. And we see plenty of potential for that on guidance. If anyone is just looking for 8-12"+ storms all the type...they're going to be disappointed 99% of the time. I believe BDL is already at average or even slightly above for the season...and its only Dec 5. I don't remember off-hand what BDL's average Dec snow is but I don't think its any more than 5 or 6". Another one of these 2-3" storms for them in the next 26 days and it was an average month.

The M woulda been worse

I can't disagree with you there. But if we could push the trough west a bit and allow for just a hint of offshore ridging (off the east coast) like the MJO map shows, it would slow the storm track down and give a better chance of snow for many. So impressively cold for some yes, but we have got to get some moisture with an improved storm track or it hardly matters.

19 here this morning

You should send some of these to the school! They’d probably repost ya or credit you somehow, UVA retweeted me once or twice and my pics sucked. Love the Gooch/Dillard streetlamp shot. Often got great pics around there.

1.3 in Great Falls. I’ll take it for the first snow.

Car topper here in Arcola. A bit more to the west in South Leesburg. What will be remembered is the number of fender benders and spin outs on the way to work.

Extend that north...I took another dong in the rear, too.

DCA and IAD M1.1" WE DID IT!

Don't look now, but the extended 00z EPS cancels out any major warm up through New Year's. While the pattern does not appear favorable for a HECS, it sure as heck beat Pacific Puke for Christmas.

.3 measured in Havre de Grace. 25°

This is what I meant. I expected a normal to slightly above normal snowfall season with a pretty active December. If we make to mid month with hardly anything in the bank of imminent, then we will need a big fish at some point.

Big dookie flakes now. It’s filling in the spots on the grass that looked bad. Snow globe outside

Agreed. But also keep in mind that the 15 days on that model (0Z EPS) preceding the map you showed are very cold in the NE 1/4 of the US and suggest one of the coldest 1st 19 days of Dec anomalies on record in the NE 1/4 of the US: Days 1-10: Days 11-15:

Well, I'm at school now (boo!), but it's snowing where it is located in Alexandria.

The last real clipper I remember was the one on January 22, 2005. That one, of course, turned into a Nor'easter.

https://mocoshow.com/2025/12/05/icy-conditions-spark-numerous-collisions-in-montgomery-county-mcfrs-urges-caution/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOf1FdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETExUzM2WVNGY0U1Z2FSZ2ZEc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHpJLeZu2VqWsVyyk1CGiBJpJ39wGIXdZx_KSPuiazudI8drMRTwBzu4ApsMQ_aem_pHHwn34TMkUOlgaBz7xAlg

1.1” at IAD officially

Now that was a lawn tractor into anus.

Snowing nicely in D.C. https://www.earthtv.com/en/webcam/washington-dc-capitol

Imagine having this right before Christmas. I’m the Y in Weymouth.

I always figured it would be easier to split north/south along US 15.

23F and the tiniest of flurries making way to the surface. Such a waste of cold air!

This is also where patience is required and remembering climo. As I stated earlier, if you have a favorable pattern, you need to cash it. Whether that is early winter, meat of winter, or late winter. If you were to look at average to above average seasons, its almost 100% likely we cashed in during those favorable periods. But I mean, for the most part its like early January into early March where our climo really is. I mean look at Boston...was it 2014-2015? they went into February below average and pulled off what like 100" in 6 weeks? There other component to this is, I think the term "favorable" pattern is really becoming overplayed. Let's be serious, the batting average on these "favorable" patterns the last several years is so low that it makes Conner Wong's average look HOF worthy. I think there's been way too much stock and emphasis on the EPS these last several winters and using that to make bold statements and claims. Obviously, when looking medium and extended, EPS is your friend...there really isn't any other tool. But I think the EPS has to be taken with less weight in these pattern regimes. Because of the smoothing of the EPS its making patterns probably look better than they really are. They are just smoothing out the chaos and its the chaos in these fast flows which is acting as the inhibitor.

Interesting thought and seems to be ground truth too.