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The Euro was fairly close this month. It had forecast a global mean average temperature of 1.67 C in September. The September average came in a +1.63 C.

beautiful day cool enough to wear a hoodie a gentle breeze my kind of weather..

The first stink bug of the season has made its appearance.

Let's see how the Northern Hemisphere snow/ice map looks by November....

The paper that RONI is based on states that it was mostly developed to prevent weak La Nina’s from getting lost in the mix rather than some deficiency in measuring super El Niño events. This is due to the expanding WPAC warm pool overshadowing the La Niña events. So the ONI and the absolute SSTs are good measure of how intense this event is becoming. My original ONI post was correct as the original ONIs we relied on for many years into the 2010s had the ONI with the 1972-1973 event peaking at the +2.0 to +2.1 range.

PDO rose to -0.74 for Sept,i thought for sure it wouldnt budge much as much as the oceans has been warming lately

100%. the touch up paint arrived, the Camry is first:

0.92" in Wilson. Radar looked anemic but it was a pleasant surprise IMBY.

Always weary of any super Uber hype. .

A question that I had to ask myself the entire summer down here..

Garner with over an inch of rain so far this afternoon Zero runoff in the little ditch on the edge of my property I mean things were dry

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

I wonder if it will really rain

.08”

Do you never not get rain?..lol.

Wineries in the mid atlantic got hit hard from the frost. it's been a total disaster for them with over 75% crop loss.

Yeah, that’s a big problem around here. From what I understand many of the crops themselves are insured but the lost revenue from all the agritainment is not.

Here I’ve been getting rain since 12:45PM moving NE with some of it very heavy. This is in addition to a quick shower this morning and moderate rain (few tenths) late yest. afternoon from popups. It appears I’ve received 1.5”+ from all of this with most of it just since 12:45PM. This compares to ~2.55” for all of Sep!

74 / 45 hovering in between clouds and sun just north much jore sunny

Agree, east by a good 20-30 miles too

Back here you can get porked a million ways by Millers A through Z

Luckily, we wil live on Miller Ave. this year. It is adjacent to Ocean Ave, but inland.

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

Unexpectedly heavy rain has snuck in. I'm at 0.60" which has already exceeded the HRRR guidance for the entire weekend (as of the 12Z map that was posted by @olafminesaw). A fast start for a change. Edit: Looks like I'll end with 0.91" for this batch. The radar didn't look too impressive but it was an efficient rain maker.

I'm rooting for you my friend