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  2. Would be consistent with a move towards a negative AO...
  3. It would be lol. Watch it be dryer and colder than last winter. It seems like it's always the opposite of what humans think will happen. I've been humbled by mother nature so many times.
  4. If anyone seen latest cfs monthlies on Tropical tidbits went complete torch and way drier. Storm systems just seem so hard to come by anymore. Hope it was just a crap run and starts to go back the other way and not keep getting worse lol.
  5. I know, still fun to look at however Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  6. Because it’s fakiational cooking. Look at ORH.
  7. Going to be funny when it just stays dry all winter too lol
  8. All the ensembles have been heading toward a SE trough (or weakening of heights as a possible precursor of the troigh) in one form/location/strength or another consistent with seasonal modeling. Of course, they maybe, like so often, early with the pattern. But it's encouraging to see it happening nonetheless.
  9. 32 degrees this morning but no frost. Had to get up early and make a local airport run for my Aunt who flew up to visit and see the leaves. She’s heading to Charlotte.
  10. Nice big +EAMT leading to a Pacific jet extension on the 11-15 day EPS.
  11. same here. oaks are starting to shed the leaves, had very few on the ground until Monday, now the lawn is covered with them.
  12. Today
  13. The latest NBM remains very mild for the start of November. Uncertainty increases at the end of the run.
  14. His spot really amazes me.. I've had frost just about every morning.. not sure why his spot is always warmer.
  15. Nice to see Eric latch on to this idea! I’ve been saying this for awhile now and so has @40/70 Benchmark. The shutdown of MC forcing combined with stronger E pac forcing could enhance the eastward extent of the southern stream in the E US, which would keep the ridge further north in Canada.
  16. There are definitely issues with maintaining the initialized thermocline slope. CFS some of the worst among them. Ofc that won't affect its near term weekly forecasts, but it absolutely does have an effect later on. Sliding through the 3.4 measurement window wasn't on the menu of plausible events before this year, but here we are.
  17. 21.6F was the low, 21.7F currently, Cold morning outside this morning.
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  19. Finally hit freezing for first time. 31.8°
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  22. Yup…a frosty autumn for the vast majority of us. At some point DIT will get to participate.
  23. 43 upon house departure. MDT looking lively from the train this morning. Carry on.
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