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Thank you grandpa.

Doesn’t have to be an Iowa derecho just give me a GD thunderstorm

Seems like once these storms roll over the mountains it really amplifies them at least for Monroe county. .

My forestry education at U. Maine included only one semester on wildfire behavior/control. However, 2 historical fires in Maine illustrated some interesting facets. The largest of the 1947 fires, one which covered about half of the 200k acres torched that October and wiped out the centers of 2 small towns, was already large when a dry cold front quickly changed the wind from SW to NW. That almost instantly making the long flank into the head and endangering those on that flank side. At the time, October had had no measurable rain and the last week of September only 0.08". Given the diurnal ranges at CF time, the air must've been extremely dry. PWM temps: 10/23 83 35 CF early afternoon? That night? 10/24 59 26 10/25 65 20 The 2nd fire was in July 1977 at the SW corner of Baxter Park with some Great Northern land also involved. In November 1974 a heavy wet snow followed by strong NW wind flattened 3,000+ acres. Due to Governor Baxter's deed of trust, very little salvage was done beyond roadside cleanup. June 1977 had been wet, but July had had very little rain when lightning ignited the ultra-seasoned tangle of trees in mid-month, the fire covering nearly all of the blowdown area plus some outside of it, about 3,500 acres in total. The forest had been heavily stocked with mixed hardwoods and softwoods, not especially old but probably about 30 cords/acre and very few trees remained standing after the 1974 event. Stems were often piled 12-15 feet high. The forester who was managing the salvage told me that the flames were able to move downhill at night, thanks to the incredible volume of well-seasoned fuel.

Flathead? .

Same for sweetwater. Keeps expanding. Radar shows 1.7 in the past hour and I expect that to go up tremendously. .

Tonight’s sunset should be interesting.

For anybody who doesn't know the Colombia and Wrightsville area of the river is infamous for its mayflie hatch. The municipality has been turning off the lights on the bridge in response to several accidents, and even small pile ups that occurred due to mayfly hatches. The picture I included was found online, probably from a few years ago, before they turned off, the lights prior to may fly hatches.

91 at 4:30 is no big deal. AQI compared to 50 years ago averages in July is also no big deal.

12 drops out here as they fired overhead and quickly moved east

Big time storms moving in.

WF action along it. Definitely good shear in place too. Probably pike south deal. Evening stuff maybe best in western areas.

Locking in Southbury to Seymour for that.

Interesting to see a map of 1877-78. I knew the core of warmth was in the upper midwest, because while it was certainly a mild winter at Detroit, it wasnt nearly as extreme as in Minneapolis. Ive mentioned it before, but the 1875-1882 period had a very odd "every other year" pattern locally of very cold winter followed by very mild winter. 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80 & 1881-82 were all warm winters overall. I have no idea how ENSO played into it outside of 1877-78. 1877-78 at Detroit (using present-day departures): Nov: 39.2F (-2.0F)....Snow 1.0" (-0.9") Dec: 38.1F (+6.8F)....Snow 1.9" (-7.0") Jan: 27.3F (+1.5F)….Snow 23.1” (+9.1”) Feb: 29.2F (+1.2F)….Snow 17.4” (+4.9”) Mar: 41.3F (+4.1F)…Snow M (est 1-2")) Apr: 53.4F (+4.5F)…Snow 0 (-1.5”) Huge storm Jan 31st (14.8"). The winter followed a somewhat similar path as other strong Ninos in that there were some very good winter blasts but the warmth won out. And realistically, thats the best formula to run a strong Nino in the north. You want that roller coaster up and down, helps with some good storms and assures you get some arctic blasts with the warm spells. Way better than mundane, stagnant 40s every day.

They exist on Tropical Tidbits, but they’re smoothed 5 day means. World view.

Thats not going to ever happen with the EWB off SA.These winds are killing KW from getting that far east and the MJO should go back into the WP,if anything you might see an expansion from downwelling but 10-12/Not going to happen

Yep, totally agree. This will take some time if there’s going to be a true effort at TC genesis. The overall track and time over the Gulf is all important here IMO.

I don't know about vanished. I just drove into Tysons and it still pretty gross. AQIs are hovering around 200 in the western Beltway area.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in advance of the surface low and cold front. As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas. Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon. Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence of favorable effective SRH. Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region, eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow boundaries from morning convection. An initially separate regime of storm development and severe potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging outflow winds. Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through the evening as it spreads southeastward. Storm Prediction Center Jul 17, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

yeah certainly could see some flash flooding

It took a couple stills from my videos from last night.I was adjacent to the Point rock tunnel in Colombia Pa. The route 30 bridge as only a few hundred yards in front of me, you can just make it out If you look closely. Between the mayflies and the smoke, you couldn't even see vehicle lights for more than a few hundred feet.

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT.

It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS

Not hatched but a 5% tornado threat in NYS

Is the 2011 tornado damage still visible across the street in the woods?