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Huge win for all of us if the trends this evening are correct. Seems like the slower organization of PTC9 and the rapid ramp up for Humberto are starting to get sniffed out. Hopefully it feels that influence more than the ULL. I’ll never forget everyone thinking the ULL last year would tug Helene from Tallahassee to Chattanooga and we saw that model bias get exposed in an unfortunate manner but maybe this time “fortunately” is the word??

High of 94 after a low of 72. Felt like summer once again.

Yeah, it's basically if the end is above in aerial coverage is what it boils down to.

Mid January...get a cold front with a juiced wave along it that signals a flip to a workable winter pattern.

Yeah, 2010-11 was an oddity. Every Forecast was for a mild to very mild Winter due to the moderate to strong Nina. Blocking was the big surprise and culprit for the non characteristic Nina Pattern. Same can be said for 95-96, although it was a weak Nina.

That could be true too. Nobody knows.

I said it could be the next Charlie.

0z hurricane models. More showing the stall and turn east motion now.

This maybe a big sike storm.......

I've been telling people at work, "This could be South Carolina's Florence". Do you think that will verify?

NWS put up a cone for potential 9 nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/262347.shtml?cone#contents

Hiked Red Hill in Moultonborough this afternoon. Easy hike with good views of Winnipauskee, Squam and Southern Whites. Tomorrow plan is to hike Willard in Crawford Notch. Swam for 20 min in lake in the morning - still pretty comfortable. You can tell the foliage is suffering from drought. Very, very dry.

So many objectives to play with this winter.I keep seeing social media seemingly saying this is a slam dunk of 2010-2011,why? I mean you do have the early Siberian snowfall going into Oct which is a plus,BUT at the same time in 2010,had seemingly a strong westerly +QBO,in which would keep possibly the PV strong its what we seen last winter In California which is even more unusual during a Nina had record rainfall in Dec of 2010.Even the -NAO,wemt on record of being the strongest ever recorded since 1825 ?Not sure how records were recorded back then,im not that old..lol

Don't despair, the 18z EURO AI loops the tropical system off the coast back into our area day 9.

Highs: TEB: 87 EWR: 86 ISP: 85 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 LGA: 84 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 JFK: 82 TTN: 82 NYC: 82

It would be an enormous coup, especially considering where the ensembles were.

Yep

I didn't write this, but its both funny and almost true...lol Buckle up, because if you’re rolling through Pennsylvania and manage to pronounce every single one of these names without stopping for directions, you’ve basically beaten the state’s secret language exam. First stop is Bryn Mawr, where it sounds like you’re clearing your throat but it’s actually just Main Line fancy talk. Then you cruise into Wilkes-Barre, which is pronounced twelve different ways depending on how many Yuenglings the guy has had at the bar that night. Hit Schuylkill, where the river itself is named after the sound your car makes when it hits a giant pothole. Then there’s Bala Cynwyd, which looks like a cheat code but is actually just “Ball-uh Kin-wood” said at 40mph. By the time you get to Duquesne, you’re wondering why half the letters are silent and if the French ever apologized. Swing through New Tripoli, where if you say it wrong the locals will politely tar and feather you with pierogi. Over in Tunkhannock, you can’t pronounce it right until you’ve eaten a hoagie the size of your head. Then comes Punxsutawney, where the groundhog gets it right but you still don’t. In Tamaqua, every vowel takes a nap halfway through the word, so good luck with that. Susquehanna is where you finally lose your will to live halfway through the syllables. Allegheny sounds easy until someone from Pittsburgh corrects you with three extra vowels you didn’t know existed. And then Monongahela, which is less a name and more an endurance spor. You need electrolytes just to get through it. If you can say them all back-to-back, PennDOT gives you a free EZPass and every deer in the state will salute to you before they jump in front of you.

Some color at the golf course.

I'm surprised you didn't post the skynet version

it would be.. some of the 18z EPS members doing the same

I've never been this involved in a tropical wave.

18z euro cut back big time for us

18Z Icon remained OTS. If this ends up not hitting the US, keep in mind that both the Icon and UKMET haven’t had even one run so far with anything even that close to a landfall. Those two models were the best with Ian by the way.

that looks miserable, unless its like a D10 ordeal lol