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Every now and then I get a feeling we’re headed for glory. Last time I felt this way was around that Jan 2022 timeframe. Idk, I’ve got an itch. Let’s speak this pattern into existence. We’ve already bullied the Aleutian Ridge.

22.6/3.2 at nearby PWS.

Well all Mets that get paid do it for a living . That doesn’t make anyone an official voice though, All equal They don’t have access to anything that other Mets don’t have. For example .. energy Mets have access to more . Playing catchup in my opinion is a poor way to forecast . An example during the screamer last week . They had wind advisories up when it was apparent that widespread 60-70 mph gusts and big damage would occur and was occurring . In summary.. just because they are a govt entity does not make them everyone’s official voice . I’ve seen Hammer on air ignore their watches/ warnings etc when he doesn’t agree

And remember last winter when you told me you would be shoveling your driveway when the Gulf Coast got hammered? Everyone is wrong sometime.

I will always go to the Box discussions for a little sanity check after all the hype, innuendo and hysteria that bounces about in certain quarters here. Doing so is like putting a kid in time out, taking a deep breath, and taking stock of things. Sometimes blending Box with the outlooks of cooler heads here gives one a pretty good assessment of what's to come.

My digital temp from outside now reads 31.4 so just cause the forecast says 28 29 etc doesn't mean it's right

What have you been watching online?

I like the enthusiasm. LFG. .

Snow recently began in BGM. CC looks like mixing might be occurring to their west. 25/8 here. I'm gonna go burn off some of the Christmas cheer while the trails are still dry.

Receiving more freezing rain than I expected, even in the heavier bursts... Probably about 90% FRZA and 10% IP with temperatures in the upper 20s.

Light sleet just started here in EN temp 27.1 DP 9.5

If this all comes to fruition because of the pacific jet extending just enough but not overextending and pumping our southern shortwaves, it’s going to be a thing of beauty. We seemingly never have any component of the Pacific working for us and we may be staring down the barrel of an Aleutian Low, near ridge bridge on the west coast and impulses into the subtropical jet with blocking to boot. BUCKLE THE HECK UP. Get that coffee ready for those 1 am euro runs. LETS FREAKING GO

All sleet np snow so much for any snow

Let's avoid getting into a debate over the NWS; Snow.

18z hrrr tickles north. Almost looks like QPF is a bit more spread out vs sharp gradient. Might be a good sign.

Others have chimed in already, but the reason why I defer to BOX for forecasts and warnings: They do this for a living, are trained, and focus their entire workday on generating forecasts. They have access to forecasting tools and data that most of us do not. They have experience with our climatology and know how to apply that to model generated forecasts that may get overlooked. They aren't generating forecasts with the requirement to generate ratings, page views, clicks, or advertising revenue. Just my opinion... They provide a valuable service to us, even those of us who have the interest in making our own forecasts. I don't mind the more conservative approach to their forecasting compared to what you get everywhere else these days. Some irony there...

I’ll say this and then people need to stop. a state of emergency is declared to obtain funding for the event. That’s it.

Here in Carlisle, at 2:30pm, there continues to be a mix of very light freezing rain mixed with sleet. Every time the intensity picks up the precip quickly becomes mostly sleet. Temp currently is down to 28.4 degrees with a rising dew point now up to 22. Several hours ago the dew point was 15, so wet-bulbing definitely exerting its influence. The total liquid equivalent is estimated to be around 0.03" with a hint of glaze progressively appearing. Definitely anxious to see if the HRRR's predictions come true.

Ready for the cold to come back.

sleet/snow at Toronto

takes away from the urgency of it when it's issued for the smallest of events

Please not this debate again. Please.

If this blocking continues to establish, we’re in play even during a seemingly mild setup or stretch. I can’t recall a block this persistent or stout in some time. You’re bound to get a high to the north and a storm eventually. The southern jet is getting some life as well. Changes are afoot my friends.

Mid to long range be looking better and better.

January 7