All Activity

Our beautiful start to September continues with some of our lower valley location recording their 8th straight morning with low temperatures in the 40's! Remarkable for the end of August and the beginning of September. We should see somewhat warmer temperatures this week getting us to slightly above normal high temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Another cold front crosses the area by the end of the week and next week looks like a return to well below normal temperatures again. Our best rain chance in a few weeks looks possible by Thursday night into Friday morning with the aforementioned cold front. We will take whatever we can get at this point.

Our beautiful start to September continues with some of our lower valley location recording their 8th straight morning with low temperatures in the 40's! Remarkable for the end of August and the beginning of September. We should see somewhat warmer temperatures this week getting us to slightly above normal high temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Another cold front crosses the area by the end of the week and next week looks like a return to well below normal temperatures again. Our best rain chance in a few weeks looks possible by Thursday night into Friday morning with the aforementioned cold front. We will take whatever we can get at this point.

The E MDR AOI is now red. This from Michael Lowry is a bit concerning at least for the E Caribbean: Models all over the map Forecast models generally agree on development, but the timing of and placement of development vary wildly, which of course affect the future track. On the one hand the American GFS is quick to develop the system this week along the northern lobe of the tropical wave and as a result move it farther north and turn it quickly into the Atlantic for next week, missing the islands to the north. On the other hand, the European model and Google DeepMind’s newest machine learning-based model that performed well during Hurricane Erin, take some time to develop the wave and do so on the southern side, which not surprisingly favors a track farther south and west and toward the eastern Caribbean for the middle part of next week. ——————— My concern is that Google Deepmind ensembles, which I know little about, did best with Erin per Lowry. As you can see, its 0Z 9/2 run has 6 of its members from the E MDR AEW in a very dangerous location. What I don’t know is how many total members it has. Lowry’s diagram makes it look like most members go toward the Caribbean, but there are only 6 that actually get there by hour 210. Many are slower (still well E) and 4 of them are turning WNW to NW (at the top of his yellow circle) and we can’t see where they go after hour 210. But regardless, this ensemble’s avg trajectory does look more dangerous than the EPS and is totally different from the GEFS.

Solid garden variety storms rolling through the metro this morning. Needed the moisture after a couple dry weeks.

This next one has a better chance than Erin did, relative to the outlook range, spanning the eastern continent and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. Note, better chance does not mean this: The CPC's handling of the PNA index has it rising positive, while the NAO is bucking for a vague negative. That's all but a 101 requirement, particularly if the latter is over the western limb. To soon to know if that's the case but just numerically, this is a better canvas. Erin never even had an easel. Anyway, the idea of a warm up mid month still does not have a lot of legs in the index spread. It matters. If we succeed in doing so, this idea dries up. Can't really have both. A pattern relaxation will likely ensue beyond this trough anomaly deal through the Lakes. The operational runs will tend to bounce the pattern aggressively the other direction, and by that I mean too much. The index/PNA rising seems in conflict here. I could see the flow relaxing, and by virtue of that... yeah, warming, but uuusually, a rising PNA doesn't set the table of eastern/WAR -like response. It's interesting... a period of some competing indicators. I tend to lean on the ensembles, however. So, meanwhile, the MDR reactivates here over this week. Any TC born out of that may find a position not as polarward as the GFS is attempting by circa D6/7. This is also a known bias at long leads regarding operational guidance, definitely with that particular model. Having too much "beta drift" (sus therein), it likes to move these systems into the Sargasso Sea while maintaining a west track at like 36 N.. Compensating for these behavior biases may see a TC closer to the NE Windward Islands by D6 or 7 ... which also fits the EPS, although I that forecast system seems a little weak considering the favorable main metrics of lowering shear, ample OHC, and lowering SAL. All these facets ... mmm, I won't calling them compelling just yet. Too strong. But, I'm willing to actually look at the models this time. LOL

no wonder models had a wcar/gulf threat it'll go on and off for now

EP, 12, 2025090212, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1074W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1009, 100, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LORENA, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

we used to get cold fronts with an inch of rain

Yep, flaccid.

Wow, what a massive fold by GEFS to EPS in today’s MJO forecast! Whereas the EPS is similar to yesterday’s idea of not going to the right side (MC), GEFS abandoned the typical counterclockwise path that it had yesterday through MC and then to 6/7. Today, it remains in 2 through 9/11 and then crawls “backwards” up to 1 followed by 8 as of 9/16 (all mainly inside the circle, i.e., low amp). The EPS is very similar: Today’s (9/2) GEFS prog: Compare today’s GEFS to yesterday’s (9/1) GEFS prog: huge change! Thus, 9/2 EPS, which is very similar to 9/1 EPS, is very similar to 9/2 GEFS as it also ends up in low amp 8:

Mmm not right. The bold is a miss-representation of both intent, but even black and white written word. For someone that spends the amount of time as you do, composing these various articulations, you should perhaps spend as much focus for clarity on the other side of the pen. "... if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. .." I've always made it clear ( ... when not being a snarky douche on purpose because it is fun to spark off meaningless internet fights haha ) that this is an art of tendencies. "Less Reliable" intimates that to the objective reader. That is not "John seemingly disregarding" anything. Aside from the fact that multiple other times, I literally have to write the sentence, "keep in mind, this is tendency" - which shockingly, never seems to penetrate or modulate the readers comprehension, particularly when having to do so violates the dignity of the curvaceous winter model. Gee. I mean come on... we're past this, or should have been 20 fuckum years ago, or whenever it was that we learned climate is a jagged serrated affair over time. The trend is not arguable. Our winters are suffering. That tendency model is constructed by the deeper trend analysis. Not by these transient seasonal teleconnectors, which are also flat empirically already demoing this is all academic at this point. It's silly to try and argue. You can get a big winter. Fuck yeah. Of course. We are more apt to observe that in 1900 than 1990, and more apt to do so in 1990 than 2025. And unless "broader consideration" changes, even less so in 2050. That's the reality of our world. Get used to compensating, and valid, reasoning that upsets the apple-cart of classic modes.

42.7 early this morning.

Just beyond bone dry here-looks like a desert. Even drier than 2023 and last fall.

It comes out before the NOAA maps but has been reasonably close based on recent experience to what the NOAA updates have been. The state of PA had their 3rd warmest June and July period on record at 71.8°. The summer ranking will be lower when NCEI updates in a few weeks since August was cooler.

I totally agree. Models trending drier are concerning, but sometimes surprises happen. Fingers crossed Berks sneaks into heavier bands tonight.

Looking forward to a return of the ever evasive southerly flow…it’s way too dry rn. Allergies have been cranking, too. Might as well live in the desert and get desert scenery. Looks like the dry conditions are showing on the drought monitor again as well.

Hints of early color up at cabin and on way home yesterday. Thought it early, but maples show first signs of fall usually in early september around home.....and its early september.

Yea, normally September is so exciting....

6.32" JJA total here.

According to Harrisburg Capital Airport, that's been open in the same location and collecting data since 1939, this summer was -.7F.

That map, though maybe close and maybe not, is not completely accurate per the map creator. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/historical/ They even state: Values prior to 1981 are based on less extensive observations.

Our feeders are filled too, fascinating birds, I love watching them.

Just to add to the August climate summary, MU came in BN for the month for temps and it was tied for the driest August on record.