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I'm sure snowman will be embedding a tweet to this effect in the AM. scoop

1.10” wind max at home 18 mph. Meh

NG was way up at 3.55 on Oct 7th. It then plunged to the Oct 17th low of 2.89, a drop of 19%, on continued mild temperatures in the E US throughout the 2 week forecast period. This drop was caused by speculators selling to go flat or, in some cases, short. Then suddenly over this past weekend, when markets were closed, the models started cooling their late week 2 forecasts to near normal. Even though that’s not due to Canadian air, it’s still notably colder than the 2 weeks of mild that had been dialed in by the market on Friday. Thus as of Fri, the majority of spec traders had been short. Then this change to a less mild period late in week 2 meant a forecast of higher HDDs. When the market opened last evening, there was a sharp gap up due to so many shorts running for the exits by buying to go flat. In addition, some of these specs decided to buy additional contracts to go long. In summary, the sharp price rise was due to a sharp increase in forecasted HDDs during the 2 week period rather than a forecast of very cold. Large changes in 2 week forecasts cause the largest price changes. Had the forecasts last week already had near normal in late week 2, prices on Friday would have been higher than they actually were and thus there wouldn’t have been today’s big rise.

sign me up for that h5 look in winter!

just imagine if there was no global warming

Its already 45 here. I think we get colder than last night and maybe have some frost in the morning

1.38" today. Praise Jah. 4.50" since 8/1 - enough for me to stop caring.

I ended up with .97”.

Same here and we've had a lot more rain. Even in the low spots my woods which rarely don't have water... nada

1.35” so far. The incredible part is that with 3” of rain in the past 2 weeks the river has barely risen. In spring we’d be at flood stage.

Things are getting serious again; you are posting WB maps!

At 1.15" here. The western slope communities east of BTV in Chittenden County have gotten crushed. They got trained by several narrow bands of heavy rainfall and now the ULL and upslope flow is cranking. There are spots over 3" and pounding rain east of BTV. They could do 4"+ in this event.

When it comes to money, those guys have itchy fingers for clicking on buy contracts. Frankly, I thought it was too early in the season for big nat gas usage even with BN temps. Guess I was wrong.

I suspect the area of forecast Snowfall to expand if the Pattern forecasted is realized. Looking like a good amount of moisture to work with. Great Lakes are very warm as well.

Yep. 34 here as well. 32 in Keokee in northern Lee County. 33 in Rose hill and Ewing Recorded.

The idea of a potentially wet October 30-November 3 period, perhaps +/- a few days to allow for timing differences at the current forecasting range, still looks to be on track as per the latest ECMWF weekly guidance. It should be noted that the CFSv2 is still not on board. On the other hand, the 12z ECMWF has insane rainfall amounts in the Middle Atlantic Region.

Been there, done that with deep fall rain and wind. I lost a newly planted liberty apple tree that way a decade ago. That’s why I don’t plant in the fall anymore.

Newark will probably approach or reach 70°. Most of the NYC area will probably fall just short.

That was the model that had us hitting 109 back in late June and we were laughing at it lol. I remember because you posted the maps.

I had a newly planted tree topple, about 12 feet high, gonna have to stake it i guess.

If the usually toasty GEMLAM doesn't get us to 70 that means we probably won't.

Don it looks like tomorrow is the warmest day out of the next 10, with less wind and some areas approaching 70? Sounds ideal.

True lol. But I have noticed that we rarely ever see mosquitoes during the middle of the day when it's really hot. It's always early on in the morning or much later in the day close to sunset.

But with a cooler climate, as you stated before, we probably didn't have all these invasive tropical species here. I can't imagine hundreds of years ago we had malaria or west nile here or any of these other new illnesses we are seeing. I wonder what our biosystem was like back then? I see some of these towns' histories go back to the 1600s, it must have been as wooded as what I see in the Poconos today. Or even more.

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.