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some things never change lol

Not that I observed.

Your writing and prose is topnotch. Always very well explained. Writing like that, with such great storytelling, is a massive skill in itself, even aside from the meteorological portion.

Model whiplash....12z CFSv2 and 18z CFSv2.

Even from NNE, that was good to click through and see. Graphics are great and that must've taken a ton of work to make happen. Kudos.

Not that it would have to be correlation, but...last year was one year where if ya underestimated it you were right, lol

Just a half inch today on colder surfaces at home. Roads wet. Got up to 34F as the warm front moved through. 2" at 3,000ft though.

You didn’t had flakes weeks ago?

Yea, first flakes here this evening.

This isn’t a new report but I just saw it and it has the latest Jamaica death toll: Death toll from Hurricane Melissa rises to 45 in Jamaica, with 15 others still missingThe death toll is expected to rise, with officials still trying to reach two towns that remain cut off since the catastrophic Category 5 storm made landfall in western Jamaica on Oct. 28. Helicopters have been dropping food and other basic supplies in those two communities, said Alvin Gayle, director general of Jamaica’s emergency management office. He said the storm has displaced 30,000 households, with 1,100 people still living in 88 emergency shelters that remain open. https://apnews.com/article/jamaica-hurricane-melissa-haiti-cuba-killed-deaths-77db005a55d415ae84b74f6680769273

Nice day, 59.2 for the high

WB 18Z AI EPS at Day 15. I see this as the glass half full rather than half empty; lot of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere to play with come the second week of December. Relax, enjoy Thanksgiving with your families this week, and count your blessings.

Calm evening on the lower Potomac.

jay looked awesome today, did anyone make it?

To go back and forth to our daughter’s school we go on Rte 9 through there

I turned off the Eagles game and am watching A Boy Named Charlie Brown on MeTV. I’m enjoying my evening much better now.

Interesting. I guess most of the marginal areas are struggling in the new normal

I took your advice to find out instead of assuming. Since he doesn’t post here, I knew I had to ask him how he’s done with snow in NM. His answer: We’ve done okay ish I would say overall, we have yet to have any snow though. Just had our first precipitation event since early October a few days ago. Earlier this year it snowed on my birthday so that was nice. Our last 4” winter storm warning worthy storm was back in 2015, tho Feb 2021 got close in a few spots. Any accumulating snow is a really big deal down in the Desert Lowlands & people go crazy over it here like they do in the southeast. The climatology here since the early 2000s is roughly about the same as places like Charlotte, NC. It used to snow a lot more here several decades ago but our average has cratered. ———— So, it wasn’t bad like I thought, but by no means has he been racking it up either. It sounds in between. He hasn’t gotten that much, but they normally don’t there.

Woodford VT is one of the snowiest places in New England.

No snow down here, just some rain showers… Temp down to 34F now, thinking might be some black ice issues here in the am.

So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just perception (which I share)? If the former, why?

The NYC average was 21.91 inches during the 30 year period from 1970 to 1999. From 2020 to now the average is 15.84. We are not far off. The average was 32.35 from 2000 through 2020. That has skewed the average higher as well as expectations.

Some snow OTG in the woods of Woodford VT around 2000’ asl

Baby steps.

The worst for me is the cold/dry. If it won’t snow I’d rather it be mild. Last winter was the worst for that reason-so much wasted cold.