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We’ll see, but I’ll take the under. Which is easy to do in the valley anyway. I hope Kevin can rip some 50-60 mph.

I watched dan satterfield, who was the chief met out of huntsville al on YouTube clips for that winter storm. It was wild. I lived in Hernando ms at the time and we barely got it where I was.

Comes down to rain and mixing. If it rains it lowers temps and limits mixing. Ideally you want a break between 11-3p, but they’ll be times of downpours.

Surprisingly, Euro weeklies are not quite as warm as yesterday fwiw. It keeps us near or just south of the normal line unlike yesterday which had us AN until the end of January. But it's not a pattern conducive to snowfall. Looks more like our chances would be along the lines of threats advertised on the 6z Gfs, if anything. Here's a link. You can adjust the date of the runs to see what the previous 3+ weeks of runs looked like too. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512180000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202512290000 Edit: all weekly products can be found here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Sub-seasonal"]}

Steal it all! Take their potential snowy joy and shatter it like a delicate tea cup, on a frigid, dry, January night. bwah, ha ha ha

No one knows.

Cut everything by 50% and it’s will be closer to reality.

Hello from NE FL. ! 70 and a light breeze as I sit on the porch and watch the surf. First of a few trips planned over the next couple of months. I lived here for 13 years so can pretty much leave it lol. Enjoy the torch!

Well gotta say. This line of rain & storms is slow moving & dumping.

That link you posted Holston was December 96 and January 97. It's 95 and 96 we were looking for.

You & I are close in age.

from cosgrove: see what I mean about all of that "Phase 8" nonsense that was the talk of the internet?). Remind yourself that for an MJO cold influence in North America, the lead impulse should be between Phases 6 and 1, be very strong, and have at least some connection to the polar westerlies. I always thought phases 3-6 correlated for warmth in our area

My WAG is ENSO neutral winters in general don't feature a predictable influence on the Pac side so the pattern is less predictable than in a Nina or Nino, and other factors tend to dictate the general pattern. I'm guessing if there isnt a favorable AO/NAO, winters tend to be milder overall and more variable wrt to snowfall, and there is increased chances of little to no snow. I think I recall PSU saying Enso Neutral brings an increased chance of a persistent SER.

I didn't think we had to deal with an AR that Winter. Blocking was a big thing that Winter though.

A true big dog should have at least a small 16”+ jackpot, and 12”+ in a good chunk of backyards. Many times the jackpot will be dismissed if it isn’t over Chicago or Detroit though.

Beautiful day today. High of 52.3 on my station.

There’s just not enough cold air out west so the storm is crashing into the West Coast are mainly just rain. And until that ridge over the central US abates, snow, and cold will be absent for the entire country with the exception of the northeast that will remain chilly, but still no snow. Hopefully this pattern can shake up after the new year, but it looks like this pattern might stick around for a bit.

Insert the "Big Bill Hell's" ad here

it would need to be a drastic drastic change

I was saying in 2023 they had a banner year out there because of the -PNA while we torched. I was saying that because If the -PNA persists this year, we might have a 2023 repeat

Haha. I was teaching 3rd grad that year. We ran out of snow days in Knox Co...like ran waaaay out of snow days.

Yeah something is definitely up with how he's pulling the data or processing it.