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Squalls were way more prolific than I would have thought. I’d expected maybe another half inch or something in the squalls, and instead it was like widespread 1-2” additional. To be fair though, 3-4” was still definitely in the minority of reports. But there were def a few more of them than I would’ve forecasted.

Actually … no ensembles system in the pantheon of the technology has ever performed very well with that particular index domain. … it’s more apt to say they’ve all been fucked since the get-go and it doesn’t appear the custodians of the technology know what to do about it

Just a brutal fall and early winter. Looks like only 2021 was drier in both the airport and long term city records for OND. The pattern persistence has been unreal. It wasn't the second warmest December in Denver records, though. Both 1933 and 1957 were warmer in the city station records. But it was the warmest for the airport stations. 1933 was legit, it's backed up by plenty of other temp records throughout the region and the West that year.

Last night you seemed doubtful that 3-4” amounts would happen. Any ideas on what bumped them up a bit? Around here I am thinking ratios were super high.

Hopefully today is more correct because that split flow +PNA look retrograding a little bit often does good things.

That squall line didn’t dissipate much at all - very impressive.

Yeah south shore cleaned up on those squalls. BOS kind of got shafted being a little too far north but just south of them got crushed.

Half inch in Westfield last night

I was told 3-4” at home.

The last time we were able to pull off that feat was back in 2009. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1875 37 0 - 1857 37 1 2 1867 39 0 3 1881 40 0 - 1856 40 0 4 1873 42 0 5 1884 43 0 - 1877 43 0 - 1868 43 0 - 1861 43 0 6 1948 44 0 - 1865 44 1 7 1977 45 0 - 1883 45 0 - 1866 45 0 8 1971 46 0 9 1956 47 0 - 1896 47 0 - 1879 47 0 10 2009 48 0 - 1970 48 0 - 1969 48 0 - 1941 48 0 - 1882 48 0 - 1878 48 0 - 1872 48 0 11 1922 49 1 - 1871 49 0

It’s yo-yoing at large scales tomorrow we could be right back where we were yesterday

TRI will finish +0.7...so, basically normal. Interestingly, TRI had 19 days BN for temps. The 6-day chinook brought temps to normal. There were 9 days were a trace or more of snow were recorded. We had two days where we hit single digits. We had a high of 71 on Christmas. Two days later, the high was 33.

2.7” was the general average around the yard I got for last night, so not too bad of an event. Only 18ºF out currently.

Looks like 1980 remains the warmest December for Flagstaff. Lot of pattern similarities this winter to that one so far.

Definitely a wintry look and feel out there today…windy, cold and fresh snow on the pack…January for sure.

oof

You know what would be even better? An entire January where 50+ never happens, but to each his own.

Yeah, picked up another 1.5" after that for a total of 7.5". Total fluff on top of like tilted pond ice on the Front Four lol. Looks great in photos. Skis like you want to hold on for dear life.

Everyone always laughs at GEFS and GFS but has it been any worse that other models for next week? Look at the euro, 5 days ago it was honking the horn for a cold and stormy pattern in the east and everyone was excited and now it’s gone absolute torch on everyone. I’m not defending GEFS, but it never really bought that week like other modeling did even though it was wishy washy. There’s something to be said if a model suite locks in consistently to a period then pulls the rug vs one that can’t make its mind up on same period. Both suck for us, but king euro failed miserably on this period. Mid month and beyond I don’t even care about yet we can’t even get 2 weeks somewhat accurate. Signs are looking 2021-ish to me with pattern change that never happens but I’m just a lurker on pattern recognition

Maybe a pedantic clarification, but the Euro isn't necessarily showing snow here because of a north trend. What it is doing is swinging a more potent vort through OH into our region which helps with the lift needed for a minor accumulation. The other models don't have that feature or are weaker.

sensory and perception do not exist. try thinking before posting

Well, in your defense....you have to acknowledge the development of a strong consensus on guidance....that's what I did over the weekend. I rationalized why guidance was potentially doing that as the lack of coupling between the strengthening Strat PV and troposphere, while acknowledging potential colder risks to my forecast. This abandonment of major blocking makes more sense to me, though.

Love this. Absolutely frigid today.

Deep deep winter on January 1.

That squall was the best I'd seen since living in Fort Kent. At RUM (for a meeting) it lasted less than 45 minutes and dropped 2" horizontally while chopping the temp by about 15°. Only 1" at home. Unfortunately, that was the last 'genuine' winter event for that cold season. The 10" of grayish-as-it-fell 4:1 glop modified by 1"+ cold RA doesn't qualify as snow, for me. Neither did the 3" of paste in the 3rd week of April. Nice if short squall went thru here just after noon, with a few minutes of visibility below 100 yards with some 20s gusts. Only 0.4" from 0.01" but fun for a bit.