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Snowy tuesday morning…good enough.

most of looks like ORH/ RI east may have issues . Or maybe doesn’t happen at all

91 and RT 2 are perpendicular.......how can you be between them?

There is no evidence for a +PNA in January

MJO is in day 3 (12/17-19) of the 3rd phase 8 of this month:

Most likely area to get the shaft is between 91 in CT and RT 2 in Mass.. Most guidance has it redeveloping nicely around ORH and points NE...

I must have missed him discussing the TNH+. He seemed oddly quiet in early December. I believe he was having some health issues so I ascribed it to that. Maybe it just wasn't popping up on my feed for some reason.

we have folks that cancel winter during the prior summer. That's routine 'round these parts lol.

sometimes he lets the desire to troll cloud his reasoning.

It will be over Corey

that's late for him tbh

Carver I believe it will be hard pressed to get the cold further west due to the east based nao. If it morphs into west based, all bets are off. We deal with the hand delt

yeah i'd say it's the last two weeks of Jan / first two weeks of Feb. There's always a delay at our latitude in both winter and summer in terms of peak "climo" and when the solstice happens. Our hottest weeks of the summer are generally mid July to early August.

Stop being so negative

The models are pretty unanimous on continuing the -WPO into Jan and the strongly -WPOs in Dec strongly support a -WPO as we know. We also know that the -ENSO -PNA stats since 1983-4 suggest good support for a +PNA Jan. But both the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS continue to show a -PNA throughout Jan (see images below). Are you saying these models are totally wrong and will correct toward +PNA? If so, why do you think they’re going -PNA? Persistence? (even though I’ve seen the EW predict PNA changes and do well).

Yeah this has always been a Maine storm

Yup--south coast. For many years, we lived in Shelburne in western Franklin County.

And honestly, after like 20ish days of BN temps....we were long overdue for some warmer weather. I kind of roll with LC. I don't think the MJO is actually having an impact right now...just a really washed out and conflicting signal. I think Nina climatology is driving this. The trough should pull back west for part of the winter due to Nina climatology alone. Then, as the pattern relaxes at some point in January, it may all rush eastward. Very, very complicated pattern in the week 2-4 timeframe right now. The duration and strength of the NAO is likely key. The good thing is that we now know that model feedback has caused two pretty significant errors this winter in the week 2-4 range. As one met noted in another thread yesterday, when models start flipping back and forth....can't really trust that until it settles down. The potential NAO and HL has upended things. We are really one good cutter or coastal from having a pretty massive cold air mass slide all the way to New Orleans. I think we will have a better idea by around Christmas time...

I can't remember who it was but someone in this subforum cancelled this winter, last year.

The 18Z GEFS for the first time from like 360-384 shows signs of a +PNA trying to develop but I'd bet its close to the 12th-15th before any chance of it

Is Mattapoisett on the south coast? You should have stayed in the money pit. Didn't you used to be out in the Berkshires?

As long as we all get 1-4” will be white for Christmas.

This area has a tendency to get 7/11 split as it pertains to latitude.

It’s dropped down to us. It’s a raging mini blizzard out there right now.

Well we’ve had cold shots in crap patterns that are followed by much above average temps 5 days later.