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Be interested to see ind members cause op not even close to brining snow to Maryland so there’s got to be some big hits in the mix.

NWS does this because of holiday travel to make folks aware.

I know this is a bunch of posts and my apologies. The 12z para GDPS goes back-to-back w/ cold fronts beginning w/ the 28-29th. We could certainly be cold and dry. That is with precedent. However, the storm track should be suppressed with this. With the return flow behind these fronts, one would think at some point either the cold air doesn't get out of the way(over running WAA) or the warm air doesn't get out of the way. To me, the para GDPS is a logical path forward, but by no means not the only one.

Kinky

Eps

EPS continues to tick colder. mean is about 4" for NYC i generally like this kind of event... shove moisture into HP and you usually have success

Well I'm hoping it keeps coming south!!!!

Lol…they’re just covering the bases/their asses.

Winter weather advisory for orange and Putnam County and Western Passaic tonight. Calling for 2 to 3 inches. I'd be overjoyed if we hit the high end.

Blowtorch effect

I wouldn’t worry about that at this point…but I know that feeling. Many times when I head up to N. Maine….storms seem to threaten CT/SNE when I’m gone lol.

If we didn't have bad luck… you know the saying lol. I found it interesting that every other Christmas Day since ~2018 has been 50°+ over here per a local met. If I get some time later I’ll check that out.

The models keep missing the blocking in the long range. What a massive change.

Ya the last one that really jacked my area was in February 2017? I think. Great ratios with that one iirc

lol

Watch it be real good for Connecticut. I'll be in Canada from Friday and coming back Monday. Am I going to miss two good storms? LOL

It’s only Monday…we’ll see how that ultimately plays out. I’m not sold on that yet. Dam…now I sound like you. But a Long way to go til Friday.

The models have all been struggling mightily.

After having 60s advertised for over a week either Christmas day or the day after, now we may not hit 40 lol.

Take a look at the difference in on the ensemble between 18z GEFS yesterday and 12z today...I have been griping about this for weeks. This is for Dec 28-29. There are a few really strong warm air masses embedded in the ensemble mean. They were greatly skewing the mean - even though there were a greater number of colder members included. As we get closer to the event, the anomalously warm air masses are subtracted. And we get this substantial move. Do I still think we see chinooks? Yes, that seems baked in the cake. However, this may we a winter where the colder air masses get colder as reality gets closer. Those are kind of fun winters BTW. We don't get a lot of those. Normally, we see cold air masses moderate as they get closer to reality - Ex A is early December. To be clear, I do want to see a few more runs before declaring the Jan 2-3 cold air mass has legs. If models are flipping this much, they could easily flip right back.

Yeah I still think less juicy and more north is likely. I could see SN/PL/FZRA in NYC. I am not highly confident in this range at the metro being mostly snow at all. I don't like the -PNA and think the pattern upstream over the N Plains/MW will allow this to probably gain too much latitude before its shunted.

I though euro looked great for CT at 12z for Friday Sat deal. Sense a theme? Looks great there, less so here, and especially north and east

DTW is at 12.9" which an exact tie for their 1936-37 futility mark. The average last snowfall is nearly 4 months away.

This is one of the most bizarre advisories i've ever seen. Winter Weather Advisory for sub-advisory snow. "up to two inches"

Well... I prefer my Christmas music to be recorded pre 1980s... NO Mariah or Wham, let alone the last decade or so