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32.4° -SN has begun

Is tomorrow’s system thread worthy or nah?

Its all about the banding whether we bust high or not. Regardless "we should" see our first real snow accumulation for the season.

Well storm starts developing in about 24hrs so pretty much should know an outcome by tonight. If models can’t get a storm right 36hrs out well then I ain’t going to waste my time on them the rest of the winter lol

I mean the euro op has to come NW at this point…right?

Agreed

It was more consolidated and tracked over 41/69 at 983mb.

I stand corrected....WB 12Z RDPS

That step down process really worked for us last year.. we got nailed before the gulf coast got theirs.. oh wait

That double lobe thing mostly gone, with the primary low moving NE off Delmarva and deepening. Nice looking run.

More in line with Rgem outcome now. And more matches nws forecast.

Pretty good consensus on somewhere in Middlesex or Worcester County, north of the mix line, is where the best chances are at a jackpot.

Nam isn't, but Rgem is, though not as good as Gfs. Still, like I posted earlier, I would like to see the Nam and icon come for the ride.

Looked pretty similar to the 06z run

That’s not correct. Rgem is and hrrr at hour 48 12z was heading towards a snow solution.

Bit of a step back. Just don't want it to be the start of a trend.

The red flag, however, is not one mesoscale model is forecasting snow.

How about temperature profile?

Moderate sleet falling here now and 35. What a wonderful wintry morning after a period of non-accumulating light snow earlier. Looking forward to work-related scheduling headaches Tuesday!

WB 12Z GFS basically the same, a tick warmer, but if you are looking for a 1-3 inch event you are still in the game.

The storm was disappointing here due to marine air and bad ratios on the far east side. Although with a low track well west in late November its not a surprise. Northwest suburbs towards Ann Arbor had 4-6". Some areas of west and mid Michigan had 6-8". I had 3.1" but compacted to about 2" of wet cement. I finish November at 5.7". DTW had 3.6", finishing November at 5.9". It was certainly a spread the wealth for the western sub tho. Pic shows last night vs this morning.

Rain. All the snow washed away... 36F

GFS actually starts as SNOW in the metros. Not as good for northern crew tho

This probably is a snow event for NYC in January, even without a true high to the north but 12/2 is too early for that setup. The temps are cold enough but the DPs are not due to the airmass in place

Looks like the 12z GFS is a tic or so west of 06z with the precip field, Bit stronger down to 983mb too.