All Activity

This team should sell everyone. Absolutely terrible. The worst thing for the Orioles future is how bad the AL is right now. They’re delusional.

Yes and I really like my cooled seats too.

Since we cant do cold and winter storms down here for the most part, I'd say lets got for the bit torch and set records. We know the piedmont can do heat no problem at all. We got that down toa science here

Moonrise.

So I saw the point fcst today for BOS, the NWS (NBM likely) had 104 for Thu. 12z GFS MOS has 96. I can see 100 at BOS, but 104? You really think going 8 deg above MOS at DY3 is reasonable? As I have said, this is not a classic Bermuda High set up, nor is it solid NW flow subsidence for big heat coastal SNE. So hardly a 1-2-3 fcst. There are many caveats. You have a dirty ridge for lots of clouds at times that can reduce peak heating potential. Waves of convection a wildcard as to mucking up the low levels across the NEUS. And why doesn't anyone talk about this, at least for coastal locations? A rule of thumb for sea breezes is looking at the sfc pressure difference between PWM and BOS. For the biggest heat period, it is 2 mb difference or less. That means local sea breezes likely, which again, reduce max heating potential. Sure, BOS likes to flip at 5-7 pm to an offshore wind and the temp spikes, but that often knocks off a few deg for the high temp compared to if there was no sea breeze. Oh, but NBM is "it" and to heck w/ human forecasting skill, knowledge, and subjectivity? This goes beyond just the met science. 104 would tie the all-time record temp for BOS. Psychologically, that is big, and makes the hype ever worse. This has real social and economic impacts, one big one in the form of cancelling and shutting so much down excessively. How is this a good thing overall? One should not fcst all-time anything w/o a darn good reason to. Models not all in agreement BOS will tie its all-time record high temp. That's one strike. Second strike, pattern recognition comes into play here, and for the biggest heat a solid Bermuda High or NW flow set up Like August 2, 1975 is historically needed to BOS to have something like a 104 max. We don't have these here.

I was also 17. Skinny, 110 lbs, and allergic to hay. It was miserable. My older brother had it worse tho. He cut tobacco that summer in Calvert county. He’s still scarred.

Under-mixing. It always seems to be the issue in these set-ups. Edit: Looks like the 0z and 12z HRRR 'only' had a high of 91, so it seems overzealous DVN was just being its usual self.

High of 89F at DCA, 90F here. not great.

Some lean times ahead in the Atlantic.

I agree with mostly everything you said, except believe it or not, this current hurricane drought is not the all-time record. That record is the 42 year drought between a hurricane in 1896 and the 1938 hurricane. But we are definitely very overdue for one to say the least! Also, it seems like the 1930s were extreme for both heat and cold records. You had the 1930s Dust Bowl and then you had the coldest temps ever recorded in February 1934. I suppose that there is a degree of randomness to everything.

Any thoughts about any nocturnal t-storm chances Tuesday night?

WRAL firecast. Falls lake will completely dry up now.

I’ve said it before, but I wish the O’s pitching was managed better.

Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season.

Can't wait to scour out the comfortable weather. 73° / 53° and clear blue skies.

Yes, there is a pithy saying "facts are meaningless without context!" This is why knowledge and understanding is history (wx or otherwise) is paramount, Things looks a lot different when you have this as part of your knowledge base. And I know this is cliche, but the longer you live, the more you see things better in this case. You realize that "this has happened before, and we did just fine overall, so it is really going to be that bad or are things that bad?" Don't get me wrong, there is impact and the negative, but what, do ppl really expect no impact or negative at all ever from wx? Geez, what planet are they living on? And you have to ask, how did we ever survive before the age of more advanced technology that makes us *far* safer and more resilient to wx?! This is the problem we face -- we have made great strides in improving things across the board for mitigating wx impacts, but you have this odd human tendency to just refocus on what bad or negative is left, and run w/ that, as if it way worse than before and the end is nigh.

The big question for us this week is when do the storms begin to reach our area. The Euro says Wednesday night, but other models say not til the weekend.

@SnowenOutThere Metrology is important(essential) to meteorology. Not sure that it is taught in a meteorology program(probably not), but imo it probably should be. If not, you can get a more profound understanding of some of the questions you seek by learning a bit more about it. Just a suggestion.

Speaking my language when we’re talking tropical

Hit 89 today. With NE winds. It’s going to absolutely roast here

83 for my high temp this afternoon and no rain here today. Congratulations Buckethead!

Actually I just looked it up. Ethanol percentage stays the same (rip off). The summer blend doesn't evaporate as fast. Apparently that's why it's more expensive.

You might hit 96-97 if everything breaks right.

I stand corrected. Thx! That makes the 1975 event even more insane. Since you had the all-time NE record temp of 107 set at EWB and 100s on Cape Cod, that still would suggest sig NW flow subsidence, and yet dews still that high? You wrote: "I just think that its kind of ironic how even with all this global warming that is happening, we still haven't been able to beat 1975" Ironic is an understatement. There is more to the story, as always the case when you have front and center heated debate/problem as to what is what. You could also say why something like the record heat/Dust Bowl of the 1930s has not occurred again, or why New England got 5 direct hurricane strikes from 1938 to 1960, and it has been almost 35 years since our last direct hurricane strike (all-time record gap). or why 31 of 50 U.S. states have recorded their all-time max temp from 1900-1937. There are numerous examples like the above all over the globe. How did such events in a cooler globe that match or exceed what has occurred in recent decades w/ the globe that much warmer? This is not rocket science or conjecture, it is basic logic. These past events are a matter of fact, and can't be discounted/ignored simply b/c it doesn't fit a narrative. What this proves is that the effects of a warmer globe are *not* linear and uniform. The MSM and alarmists act like *all* gets worse across the board everywhere b/c of warmer mean temps. That is an inane and vapid notion/mindset. The Earth's climate is a chaotic, non-linear, coupled system, yet you get too many treat is as 1-2-3. Example? Warmer ocean temps and that means bigger and more intense hurricanes. Yes, everything else being equal, that is true. What they conveniently ignore is changes to mean RH vertical depth in the tropics/subtropics, changes to vertical wind shear, and general circulation changes. Ocean temps are only one part of equation for hurricanes. Hurricanes, esp. intense ones, require very specific conditions, and everything has to line up properly. Throw one thing off (shear, moist environment, or SSTs), and that puts the breaks on this significantly. And I would argue that SSTs are the least important b/c you have more than warm enough SSTs in large areas across the globe to support intense TCs, or a TC at all, and how many occur per year? It is more of a delicate balance than one may think, and "more" (higher temps in this case) does not always work in a nice, neat linear fashion, esp. when it comes to complex systems.

DVN had 95 for us today. We hit 90.