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  2. dendrite
    Yeah…never claimed it was wrong.
  3. Jackstraw
    They are real. It's gotten pretty crazy here. 1/4mile vis just from the rain. Flash Flood Warnings almost the entire eastern half of the state now expanding to the NE as this next bow moves in. Phones gone off 3 times for a FFE in the last 2 hours. We could definitively see 15 inch event totals in places(some already have over 10) if this bow tracks along this stalled outflow boundary. Hoping it washes out as it turns similar to yesterday. Its a freaking electric power washer non stop out there too. Still constant lightning. Crazy stuff. I'm officially flooding severely now. Barns taking water
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet we see that delta continue to slowly shrink. 1982 actually ended up with a RONI that was higher than the ONI, which is likely why it's the only intense El Niño to average slightly -WPO. I don't expect us to get that far this year, as the ONI will remain somewhat higher, but I do think that the absolute RONI value will get higher.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that the RON/ONI delta seems to be closing a hair (.5 to .4)...I mentioned back in my blog earlier this summer that this will be key to salvaging a decent second half...I hedged towards a 2015-like middle ground (think 1997 canonical /2023 MC opposite ends of spectrum), and still like that....at least.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I get what you were saying...no way will December be similar. I am sure to explain how I derive my seasonal composite members before introducing the map, in addition to also giving a composite list for each individual month, so I agree that a measure of preemptive context is important.
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm
  8. A-L-E-K
    radar est rain totals east of indy are already extreme this run ends with the pump very much still primed for more mcs activity very dialed in
  9. donsutherland1
    I don't disagree that it could be viable, especially if strong blocking were to develop. I was just referring to the entire period. I think a back-loaded scenario is plausible. So is a one notable storm-type idea.
  10. winterwx21
    Yeah the timing really sucks -- clear skies today but clouds come in tonight. We have a problem with the wildfire smoke right now too, but I see HRRR has it clearing out just in time for the meteor shower tonight. So we'll have to see what happens with the showers/storms for overnight tonight. Hopefully there will be a period or two in which it's just partly cloudy instead of mostly cloudy so we can see some meteors here tonight. I wish you good luck in seeing some tonight. It is frustrating that we have the clouds to deal with tonight because the same thing happened on the peak night of the Geminid meteor shower in December, which of course is the other big meteor shower. It's frustrating when we have little to no moon interference for viewing but clouds mess it up. Bad luck with these meteor showers lately.
  11. wncsnow
    1.2 total here. Just when I think it's going to dry out, the storms return
  12. GaWx
    C Joe Bastardi calls them “ham sandwiches” . Well, Cristobal is the latest ham sandwich.
  13. King James
    Impressive winds in Watseka
  14. Greenwald
    Yeah I woke up and thought what?? Big MCS over by Chicago and FFE down south. Chicago wave according to SPC should turn south but we'll see. Warned for 60 right now.
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It implies a negative AO winter in the mean for the coming season.
  17. Ernest T Bass
    Ended up with .5 from yesterday afternoon, and another .4 late last night. So .9 total on a day that I started with not even a chance showing in my forecast. And this was after days of missed chances with very little to show. I think that is part of what makes weather fun.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2010 is a perfectly viable analog for the second half....there seems to be this misconception that you can't include an analog in the composite unless you feel like the coming season will be a replica of it. Good luck operating like that because it's a pretty exclusive methodology.
  19. Malacka11
    Surprisingly badass looking as it rolls through, in places the scud is nearly touching the ground
  20. smokeybandit
    I call them emotional support named storms.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    50mb to 1948, too. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.50mb.data
  22. Today
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have QBO data to 1948 at the page I use.
  24. WxUSAF
    Seems a majority of guidance wants to bring some decaying showers/storms through the metro area after sunset towards midnight.
  25. A-L-E-K
    12z guidance says we'll be on this train into the weekend
  26. frontranger8
    DEN has yet to record measurable rainfall in August, after July finished well below normal. Definitely due for a couple soakers.
  27. nvck
    Really dire situation in southeast Indiana, looks like they could stack another 3-5" on top of this.
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