All Activity

I def tape that EURO snowmap right under the mistletoe.

I would take 2" and run in this pattern....no complaints..... Unless Scooter gets 3"-

We always get warm right

A ways to go yet…so this isn’t locked. Sure, could tick WORSE as I’m SURE you’re aware of, but it absolutely could tick better too. The dog crap pattern that you coined yesterday, may just give you a white Xmas after all. How ironic.

One Christmas eve, I was 10 or 11yo, it snowed in Tarboro a few inches. I got my first real sled the next morning. And that was when I used whatever good karma I had. It snowed a few more times that winter and that sled had some dents by spring. Grateful for the memories. Hope the kids get some snow this year.

And if I showed you all this December analog, you might not be enthused. I can only imagine the number of folks who would have canceled winter had the internet been around. It looks almost identical to the last 10 days models for this December. That is ->

Jan and Feb 1996....I don't mind ridging into the Aleutians. Recently, that hasn't been a good thing. Historically, it isn't bad. January 2015 had it. But look at January of 1996. We kind of want hp to not be centered on top of the Aleutians. But AN heights in the Aleutians can be really good as long as it is centered to one side. The ticket is getting a trough to slide in over Hawaii or just to the east of it. A lot of great patterns flirted with disaster at times(torch).

Accu Weather super accurate Jan 2026 forecast. Besides a day or two a bunch of nothing going on...drought guy will not be happy.

EURO looks decent here....but the usual, with the real good being 10mi north of me.

I’m a little skeptical of BL warming that far into interior. 925 starts off pretty damned cold. Like -7ish. It does warm decently but that’s a lot of warming to happen in 6-8 hours to erode the sfc. Def vulnerable in the usual coastal plain spots where southerly flow hurts but up in your area and anywhere else deeper into interior I may hedge a little colder. Esp this time of year with really weak insolation.

It's been the same Niña base state, despite Niño in 23/24, so I'd believe it.

Cloudy as well. I don't like a sunny Christmas. You can leave the outdoor lights on and people will be able to see them better...

Here is the difference between the mean and actually what the individual members depict. As is, that not a slam dunk warm pattern. Many of those are BN for temps or headed that way within the next slide or two. When you look at the mean, it is easy to assume that we are headed for a warm pattern. It is why the deterministic models have to be given a bit more weight than normal.

That's not ridge bridge................................. That's euphuked

Kind of surprising considering how warm it looked the last two days. Still not totally buying it, but this is clearly a very volatile look. I don’t trust anything out in LR right now given the weird exotic blocking we’ve been seeing showing from time to time.

"It's getting late early" is a famous Yogi Berra "Yogi-ism," meaning time seems to pass quickly, especially when you're not paying attention or when a situation requires urgent action

IDK. There are definitely some colder winters with it there. I was surprised when I went and looked last year. There has to be Atlantic help to overcome it. It is the rex block which it creates which is the problem, and that (to the best of my knowledge) doesn't form every time. There are some crazy good winters with teleconnections which are out of whack.

Happy to report that the ski trails fared the storm really well. Even all natural terrain and glades are still in good shape with some decent powder stashes from the few inches we got overnight.

Literally +110 odds lmao

I’d give them a decent shot now but we got a ways to go. This system will probably have two maxes. The area that gets hit from the initial warm advection and clipper and then from the developing surface low offshore. Someone in between will get the shaft. Right now the prime shaft zones may be places like central MA down through CT and central to eastern LI. It’s a case where Morristown could see more snow than New Haven

Late to the party on account of a full shit clog in my basement U joint, quite an experience. For what I just went through, I’m now demanding GFS verification.

The key for any winter weather and cold of any significance moving forward is to dislodge the aleutian ridge. Imo, that's the main thing to watch. We shall see

26 for the low

Icestorm conditions