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Interesting article in the Morrisville paper about snowpack on Mt. Mansfield. Putting it here because I don't want want to start a climate change argument. Mt. Mansfield study looks at effects of shorter winters

move that trough 150-200 miles west and it's bingo for us

A few of us were also urging 'cautious' optism having been thru this year-in and year-out. But yeah, the social media warriors were hammering on 100% certainty. Still optimistic on my end at least, albeit tiptoeing cautiously in here.

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now.

12z Euro op has a low offshore Jan 7-9 timeframe. Close to something here folks.

Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone.

high of 52 a few hours ago, now 47. Martinsburg airport gusted to 56 last hour and yes, the power did flicker. i hate this stupid, useless wind.

12z GEFS really lit up

Ours are much more accurate IMO https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-1996

Yeah the NESIS maps are good for general coverage idea. They are often wayyyyy too conservative in the jackpot regions. The Kocin maps in the book are much better at showing those.

Wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up better for eastern ma in the cape. Would shock me. Could also completely fizzle to nothing

In your estimation, what are the time frames for this? I know there are dates on the models, but do they pan out correctly? I have to go to Germany for work in two weeks. .

no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where it's use stops.

Moderate to heavy snow here now.

Figured that was coming

It's close but verbatim it isn't- though I don't exactly trust the AIFS on p-type. As was already shared the surface is too warm, whether you buy it or not is up to you FWIW I am very bullish for January and am mostly just trolling JI

Snow is holding up atleast for now

@tunafish I think we're going to need you to run your AI translation bot on this one...

Sun is out here. Wind picking up. Temp 45.

I was in a band that had rehearsal space above the old New England brewery spot (before their big glitzy place) and they had loaders taking away snow and putting it in dump trucks. As I recall they were dumping the snow in the harbor (could be wrong on that but I think I am correct).

Power outage map shows the icing extent:

1/6 looks decent on Euro today. Moderate 3-6 type event.

Well hello there

yup...that's a beauty of a shortwave digging in and amplifying.

Just got back from Newington where it was 38 and lots of melting. At home, we can't seem to crest 34. Heading out shortly to shovel what I can because like you said, this is all going to lock up for the next few days!