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What is the Cascades Alex!?

I mean anyone who understands NE weather in winter knows that setup is conducive to CAD . With Eastern Canada in an icebox and NNE buried in snow odds favor a colder scenario by Christmas. Aspeta santus una Padre Santus.

The -NAO look some are desperately banking on is also completely absent cold air in southeast Canada. It’s all in the west. And easterly flow is off >45F SST’s. It’s a complete losers bet to expect N to BN during that window.

The math does not hold man, I'm literally sitting here doing the testing and its an overfit. My best guess is found a value you think makes sense based on recent record and picked it because it fit observed data. All I've asked you, repeatedly I might add, is why 4" means something statistically and meteorologically. ENSO is not and never really has been a great predictor of snowfall here.

It feels weird being in the bullseye for this storm. I am still expecting a rug pull.

This warm up has been modeled for a atleast a week now and has universal support from all ensembles. Not sure why posting about what the models show long term would be weenieish lol

I think we're semi-cooked on this one. It just frankly doesn't snow for very long on any of the models and it isn't like this is a juiced up event. We'll try again in January.

LGA is in the same boat. We are talking about daily measurements and not storm totals spanning multiple days. No one said that they were. Just that we don’t get as much snow from them than we used to.

I have 4-5” of snowpack, should add another 1-3 Sunday, hoping we avoid rain at weeks end. Really feels like Christmas. Coldest December I can remember. The Lehigh river is half frozen .

It’s definitely a mild look overall, but with the ridge crest in the Midwest, it does open up the door to some cold air damning events, especially in your typical favored areas.

Wow...getting some pretty good flakes in East Kingsport right now!

Then your methodology is off.

Be nice to some white with the Christmas decorations this weekend

Those three stations are what I'm testing. Again, assumption made that is incorrect. Take an average of those three stations, that's your 'snowfall index'. Bench that snowfall index to ENSO past 30 years and you get a correlation that fails. So other than arbitrarily fitting it to the data, why does 4" mean something meteorologically?

We are taking about local and not regional snowfall observations. A broad brush approach doesn’t always work especially with the wide variation between the coastal plain to mountains areas to the north and west. You need to more narrowly focus the data for the sensible weather from EWR to NYC and LGA for which the relationship is valid.

Some Met .Doesn't understand CAD.Thinks we live at 850 and 500. As far as calling me a loser. Come to our GTG Sat and we can talk bout it.

One of the 4 features I’ve been talking about, the negative WPO, is starting to fade or weaken. I’m starting to think that with the extended -PNA through the rest of this month, the warmth is going to last past the new year. We still haw canada cold, mjo projected to return to into 7/8, and stratosphere activity (with a lag). With these still in the picture, cold may return around the second week of January. The PNA may also flip positive for the majority of next month as well.

Latest blend juiced up

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

With age comes extreme wisdom. The knowledge that we can only control our individual lives and the realization that all that surrounds it is uncontrollable. There is no sense in getting upset over things we cannot control.

It’s worth recognizing… You’re a fool.. Even with the coldest Ensemble runs of the EPS for that date, it’s still warm. A loser taking a losing bet. Shocker. That incredible warmth is 250 miles away; the deep cold is 2500 miles away…Take your bet… Some critical thinking is worth something.

I guess. I mean, nothing is ever 100 percent. I have plenty of other hobbies and duties, so if it doesn't snow I can distract myself. Also it's a double edge sword having a career where you have to work out in said weather. A break can be nice

I wonder who those 2 are?