All Activity

This works for me. Below normal temperatures this time of year don’t help in the snow department. Above normal temperatures this time of year are typically tolerable. Let the pattern flip towards Thanksgiving just like last year & then hopefully we can score a little early snow.

We grow and flower .Tgiving or later looks very realistic

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +6.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My eyes and my heating oil budget like this!

Saw it coming after he spoke yesterday. He just wont play hurt. Bengals coming off a bye, Tavius Robinson done for the season...this probably won't end well. Bills up next, then the Jags.

I really don't know or care what he intended. It was a wag and is why I said "may have been" the reason. Lol

Lamar ruled out for tomorrow. Welp, 4-3…

An El Niño does not have the same effects on the stratosphere as a major tropical volcanic eruption injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Not even close. They are 2 completely different things and the effects are completely different. I’m totally lost. The last major tropical eruption was the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano way back in January, 2022 and that was a water vapor eruption, not a classic above ground sulfate aerosol (SO2) eruption

>75% of leaves down in my yard.

FYI per this afternoon's AFD from LWX The growing season for 2026 has ended along and west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains, but continues east of there. Any headlines for frost/freeze conditions will only be issued where the growing season remains active.

High around 70 (potential record) on a S wind. Beautiful late Oct day with rain in the picture

Can't speak for him, but he may have been just using the phrase to describe the atmosphere from the input of the record Niño.

that white speck in DCA:

It’s been a long week

From 30 - 64 now blue skies, great late october day

A volcanic stratosphere??? Huh???? We don’t have a volcanic stratosphere. Like not even remotely close to one. I haven’t even the slightest glimmer of a clue as what that means

Steve D

It’s eternally stoned now I think…thing is trash.

Yeah ill sign up for that

November in any winter is always a crapshoot regardless of enso. But its highly likely that at least one blast of winter weather will hit (at least the Great Lakes). So in this case, im fine with a mild start to November. No guarantees but it betters the odds of a cold shot around Thanksgiving. November is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st to last day of the month.