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Not to be a negative weenie but GEFS is really not that good. Only 4ish members get appreciable snow to the cities. Heavily skewed by a few that drop 8-12”.

Yup that’s how we envision it

I do think for the legit storm thread Scooter or Ray or Will or Tip should start it.

well, remember our discussion yesterday ... get the v trajectory S, huh

Great idea! I'll give my early shoutout to @katabatic - who's been working with me to plan a little meetup/snow chase for this weekend. Appreciate his hospitality and look forward to meeting him soon, unless it turns out we're expecting more snow in DC than DCL

There has been a lot of complaints on my FB page that we have had a "snow drought" this season. So I posted the below. "Through today some of you may be surprised to learn that here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA we are actually above normal in seasonal snowfall through today. With one significant snow and a bunch of little events we are at 12.8" of snow this season. Average through today is only 9.4". This means over 75% of our annual snowfall on average remains to fall. Here in Western Chester County, we average 36.1" of snow while Eastern Chester County is ~32" of snow. Maybe surprising to some of you but over at the PHL Airport they only average 21.7" of snow. Of note we on average are not too far off of the average snowfall for Chicago IL (38.4"). Any surprises with these stats? Below is our average snowfall by month. October (0.4") / November (1.2") / December (5.5") / January (9.7") / February (12.8") / March (6.0") / April (0.4")"

There has been a lot of complaints on my FB page that we have had a "snow drought" this season. So I posted the below. "Through today some of you may be surprised to learn that here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA we are actually above normal in seasonal snowfall through today. With one significant snow and a bunch of little events we are at 12.8" of snow this season. Average through today is only 9.4". This means over 75% of our annual snowfall on average remains to fall. Here in Western Chester County, we average 36.1" of snow while Eastern Chester County is ~32" of snow. Maybe surprising to some of you but over at the PHL Airport they only average 21.7" of snow. Of note we on average are not too far off of the average snowfall for Chicago IL (38.4"). Any surprises with these stats? Below is our average snowfall by month. October (0.4") / November (1.2") / December (5.5") / January (9.7") / February (12.8") / March (6.0") / April (0.4")"

Jan 4, 2018 walked through the door on the GFS. Wish something else was onboard.

Yup. It’s very likely to be gone next run. Best advice for everyone is don’t do it

That sounds about right, Will. Would be pretty funny to go from gloom and doom to a snowy Saturday as the warm up act for a significant snow Sunday/Monday. With Arctic cold lurking next week. That would be quite the reversal.

UK shows nothing. GFS shows a bomb. CMC has a light-moderate event. Icon has a light-moderate event. We'll see what Euro says

Consensus on the GEFS is there for a more juiced up system, also a slight NW trend

Looks nice and cold in the long range. CMC and GFS have something around the 22nd, looks like a SWFE which would favor New England of course.

Probably because it shows 2-4" on Saturday from that wave. You have to wonder if we prefer that to not exist re: wave spacing and the spiel around that.

Yes and no. The trough needs to be negative in order to get this further west. If it's not negative, it's not coming further west with a positive trough.

UKMET prefers Saturday. Let's see what Dr. No is up to.

As soon as it tries to pop blocking over Greenland, it pops a trough over AK

It is entirely possible that the Sunday system is just getting sampled better. But...I bet the Euro is the likely solution. The GFS has been on steroids this winter for some reason at times. Let's see where this Euro run goes...I am gonna bet it is west of its 6z run but not by a lot. If that storm actually cranks, it is gonna be frigid here.

Let’s keep the Mojo here for now

They had the nicknames Crazy Uncle and Dr No for a reason.

Seemed to work til 2014-2015. Since then much less so. I think after the Euro upgrade in that period the rule kind of went out the window.

wonder if we get some light snow Saturday that never really stops, light flurries and snizzle until what ever shows up on Sunday...days and days of yore.....

They almost always follow each other over the years. Typically whatever Ukie does , Euro follows in various degrees

I know people hate threads for whatever reason but wonder if we need to split off the Saturday stuff. Getting confusing