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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Baroclinic Zone replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Baroclinic Zone replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Amazing song. Made some great music post Dio. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
0.79” so far . -
Nothing is guaranteed just because we are having a Nino. October, November and December of 1965 experienced a strong Nino at +2.0 A severe drought was in progress. Dulles received a total of .46" during November of 65. December of 65 was worse at only .42"! The heavy snows of late Jan. 66 finally brought moisture.
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Big Gulf lows moving up the coast with long-duration soaking rains. It will be dreary, but we need it!
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
vortex95 replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
See X post attached. The Baltimore TV market is not tiny and this is a major network affiliate, not cable or independent! And owners don’t seem to understand that many ppl watch local news for the anchors! Pre-recorded segments? You can get that anywhere. But at least they have live wx still. The wxcast is the number one reason why ppl watch local news. Yes, I understand the economics and how the business is evolving but it is still not good. I have noticed since the advent of widespread AI-generated content several years ago, there is a strong backlash and stigma now in much of the population, and it is not just older generations. "AI Slop" as a term has becomes mainstream. Funny, when CGI first became big in the 90s, that did not have nearly as much pushback, probably b/c you still actually had ppl as actors and you knew they were real. Now? It has gone into "uncanny valley" territory. Ppl do not know what is real or fake now, and that fundamentally raises alert/suspicion in our minds. I think some smaller TV markets have already done this, but as noted, Baltimore is not a small TV market. Has it happened anywhere for New England markets yet? -
98F/ 78 dew. Feels like 115. Watching the storms arriving from the NW doing their usual thing and falling apart as they hit the triangle.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
gallopinggertie replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Hong Kong recently broke its all-time high, during Typhoon Dolphin. Here is an excerpt from an environmental newsletter I receive, describing the day: “ Dear Reader, On Sunday, August 9th, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a temperature of 36.9 C (98.4 F), the highest since records began in 1884. I’ve often told my friends stateside to imagine Hong Kong’s normal summer climate as “Houston on steroids.” This past Sunday was something else: I was breaking into a sweat just standing in the shade waiting for the bus. There was no breeze, and you could feel the heat radiating into your body, as if you stepped into a sauna. In fact, the “feels like” temperature reached 46 C (114.8 F) — hotter than Houston, Miami, or Phoenix.” -
The .47" received today is the most from 1 event since July 21.
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Bold prediction: The Os never get above .500 and miss out on the final WC spot by one game
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Dews have come up nicely. A bit swampy as we mow -
The line is already there in ern OH (looks like a LEWP), so the HRRR is not creating the mini-bow echo from nowhere. HRRR has a couple of cells before the bow, and then clusters after it! My kind of tstm day!
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In my part of Columbia at 3 PM there is a break in the action/overcast. There are about 0.11 inches of rain. Hopefully more to come.
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Still a quarter to half inch in the forecast for tonight. Only meso model that has anything close to that is the latest run of the HRRR, which will be completely different in an hour. Can't wait for the atmospheric response to the Nino to fully kick in. Actually looking foreword to a dreary Fall with lots of rain lol.
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Seems pretty typical around here. Storms maybe later seem progressive. Not expecting much.
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Supposed to die out
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Per SPC mesoanalysis, there's a pretty solid are of instability cresting the Allegheny Front.- 1,936 replies
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In tropical situations, it can be useful to use the virtual temp at the sfc instead of the dry bulb temp. Using it can represent CAPE better in such environments (virtual temp decreases CIN and increases CAPE). 76 dew point is nothing to shake a stick at! Don't need too much heating for things to go and go well w/ that kind of juice.
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Possible rain earlier than expected?
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Use NAM MOS and HRRR together and you knew when the flip from SN -> IP -> RA would occur 90% of the time. That combination consistently schooled the GFS and Euro inside 30 hrs.- 1,936 replies
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Slightly wet ground. Is this it? Yesterday's forecast was for a half inch today and up to an inch tonight. LOL This has been a recurring trend with the forecasts here for months.
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Yes, the NAM has some uses. It handles CAD much better than the GFS, as one example and its MOS reflects that. But the HRRR handles CAD well, so no loss there. Since it has more vertical levels than all the global models, its should handle mix zone better and we are used to that. But again, the HRRR and now RRFS should effectively replace that skill (eventually). Losing some for other gain happens. I recall NHC objected to an upgrade of the GFS some years ago b/c it was clearly shown that the upgrade made TC skill less for the EPAC basin. The upgrade was done regardless. So it's hard to please everyone!
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Cooled off with the cloud cover and wind. First half of day was nice
